***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 18.2 -1.1 33.3 38.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 20.6 20.4 18.0 -1.0 32.2 40.2 20.6 22.7 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 20.3 20.9 18.3 -1.1 34.0 39.6 20.8 22.7 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.5 13.3 16.6 -1.3 35.4 37.1 12.9 14.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 20.3 20.7 16.8 -1.3 33.0 38.0 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 18.2 18.9 14.7 -1.6 32.7 36.4 18.9 19.8 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 20.0 20.3 17.9 -1.1 32.8 39.4 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.2 8.2 15.1 -1.4 32.9 38.2 8.2 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 19.7 20.0 17.1 -1.3 32.9 38.6 20.0 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 19.9 20.3 15.9 -1.3 33.5 38.5 20.3 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 19.9 20.4 16.3 -1.4 31.8 38.0 20.4 21.2 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 18.9 19.1 16.0 -1.4 31.1 37.7 19.3 20.6 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 19.5 20.1 15.4 -1.5 30.5 37.0 20.4 21.0 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 20.0 21.0 17.0 -1.0 35.2 41.0 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 20.2 19.8 17.0 -1.3 34.9 36.8 19.7 22.0 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 20.1 20.5 15.9 -1.5 31.5 37.2 20.5 21.6 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 19.9 20.2 17.8 -1.0 34.1 40.6 20.2 21.7 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 19.2 19.7 15.3 -1.3 34.3 39.2 19.7 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 20.1 20.3 18.2 -1.0 33.2 40.7 20.3 22.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 13.9 14.3 13.0 -1.3 33.1 38.8 14.3 15.7 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 19.9 21.1 17.8 -1.2 33.4 38.7 21.0 21.8 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 20.3 21.0 18.0 -0.9 35.7 41.7 20.9 22.5 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 20.5 20.6 18.2 -0.9 34.7 41.0 20.5 22.8 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 19.8 20.4 16.9 -1.1 34.4 39.8 20.4 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 20.1 21.0 16.8 -1.2 34.2 38.3 20.9 22.2 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 18.4 18.7 15.2 -1.5 28.7 36.8 19.3 20.0 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 20.0 20.6 17.4 -1.2 33.7 38.6 20.6 21.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 20.0 20.5 16.8 -1.4 34.9 36.7 20.2 21.9 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 13.9 14.6 14.3 -1.3 34.4 39.6 14.4 15.8 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 20.3 20.5 18.2 -1.1 32.6 39.7 20.5 22.3 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------