***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 17.3 -1.3 33.8 38.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 17.9 18.1 17.1 -1.2 33.0 38.6 18.1 19.8 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 17.8 18.5 17.4 -1.2 33.2 39.2 18.4 19.7 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 9.8 11.4 15.8 -1.2 32.9 39.5 11.4 12.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 18.2 18.5 15.9 -1.2 31.4 39.6 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 16.2 17.2 13.8 -1.3 31.6 39.5 17.2 18.1 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 17.4 17.7 17.0 -1.3 32.7 38.2 17.7 19.4 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 5.7 6.9 14.4 -1.3 30.5 40.0 6.9 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 17.7 18.2 16.3 -1.2 31.7 39.6 18.3 19.5 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 17.7 18.0 15.2 -1.3 30.4 39.9 18.2 19.3 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 17.7 18.7 15.5 -1.2 30.3 39.9 18.9 19.5 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 16.9 17.5 15.2 -1.2 29.7 39.8 17.7 18.5 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 17.6 18.1 14.6 -1.3 28.0 39.6 18.5 19.6 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 18.0 18.5 16.1 -1.2 31.2 40.2 18.5 19.8 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 16.5 18.8 16.1 -1.1 36.2 39.4 18.6 19.7 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 18.3 18.5 15.2 -1.2 30.9 39.9 18.9 20.1 21.9 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 17.3 17.3 16.8 -1.3 32.9 38.1 17.3 19.2 20.4 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 17.0 17.6 14.5 -1.3 30.7 39.8 17.8 18.7 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 17.6 18.1 17.2 -1.2 33.1 39.1 18.1 19.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 12.1 13.1 12.3 -1.4 31.6 40.1 13.2 14.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 18.0 18.4 17.0 -1.2 32.0 39.4 18.6 19.7 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 17.7 18.2 16.9 -1.2 31.4 38.4 18.3 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 17.8 18.4 17.2 -1.1 31.8 39.7 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 17.5 18.2 16.1 -1.3 30.9 39.9 18.5 19.2 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 17.6 18.2 15.9 -1.2 31.7 39.1 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 17.0 17.8 14.4 -1.3 31.1 39.1 18.0 18.8 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 17.6 18.2 16.5 -1.3 32.0 38.8 18.3 19.5 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 16.7 18.8 16.0 -1.2 33.9 39.8 18.8 19.4 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 11.9 13.0 13.5 -1.4 30.6 39.9 13.2 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 17.8 17.6 17.2 -1.2 32.9 38.7 17.7 19.8 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------