***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 0.0 17.7 0.7 60.8 58.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 17.8 18.2 17.7 0.9 63.3 62.4 16.2 17.6 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 18.2 18.4 17.7 0.7 59.0 57.4 16.4 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 10.1 10.0 15.2 0.2 52.1 52.1 8.7 9.8 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 17.9 17.5 15.8 0.1 48.5 50.1 16.5 17.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 16.6 15.2 12.7 -0.9 40.7 40.7 14.9 16.3 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 17.6 17.9 17.6 0.8 62.1 61.2 15.6 17.4 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 5.4 4.8 13.8 -0.1 49.0 49.1 3.6 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 17.7 17.6 16.8 0.2 51.2 51.4 16.2 17.5 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 17.8 17.6 14.9 0.0 49.9 49.3 16.0 17.6 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 17.7 17.3 15.3 -0.2 47.4 47.5 16.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 16.8 16.3 14.5 -0.2 45.7 47.5 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 17.8 17.1 14.2 -0.5 42.2 44.5 16.7 17.6 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 18.2 18.3 16.9 0.7 60.7 58.0 16.5 18.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 17.5 17.4 16.8 0.4 53.0 53.9 16.0 17.2 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 18.2 17.6 14.9 -0.4 44.4 46.0 16.8 18.0 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 17.2 17.7 17.6 1.1 67.5 64.1 15.8 16.9 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 17.5 17.4 14.4 0.3 54.7 52.1 15.5 17.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 17.8 18.1 17.8 1.0 62.6 62.2 15.7 17.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 11.9 12.1 12.3 0.6 56.1 55.6 9.7 11.7 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 17.8 17.8 17.5 0.4 55.0 53.4 16.7 17.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 18.4 18.6 17.8 1.2 69.0 65.3 16.5 16.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 17.9 18.3 17.9 0.9 61.8 61.2 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 17.9 18.0 16.3 0.4 56.7 54.0 16.3 17.8 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 17.4 17.7 16.5 0.6 55.6 55.6 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 17.0 16.7 13.5 -0.3 46.5 46.1 15.6 16.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 17.6 17.8 17.2 0.7 59.0 57.8 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 17.6 17.3 15.7 0.0 49.4 49.8 15.9 17.3 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.4 13.7 0.5 56.2 54.6 10.4 12.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 17.7 18.1 17.8 0.9 61.9 61.0 15.3 17.6 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------