***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.3 -0.7 29.6 34.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 7.1 7.9 8.2 -0.6 34.6 37.5 7.9 8.3 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 9.1 9.5 8.2 -0.5 35.8 38.9 9.4 10.3 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 3.9 4.6 6.4 -0.6 32.4 36.0 4.6 4.9 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 5.8 6.2 6.4 -0.5 35.2 37.5 6.1 6.7 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 5.1 5.3 4.6 -0.4 35.2 41.4 5.3 5.9 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 7.3 7.6 8.2 -0.7 33.9 36.0 7.6 8.5 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -0.2 0.4 4.8 -0.3 40.2 42.3 0.2 0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 6.8 7.0 6.9 -0.5 36.0 39.0 6.9 7.5 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.0 7.4 5.5 -0.3 39.7 41.4 7.3 7.6 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 6.6 6.8 6.0 -0.4 38.7 40.8 6.8 7.1 7.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 5.2 5.5 5.5 -0.4 38.9 41.3 5.3 5.7 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 6.1 6.5 5.0 -0.4 36.1 40.3 6.4 6.9 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.3 7.8 6.9 -0.4 35.8 40.6 7.8 8.2 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 7.8 7.9 7.1 -0.6 31.6 36.2 7.9 8.6 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 7.2 7.4 5.6 -0.4 35.4 39.7 7.3 8.1 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 7.7 8.4 8.1 -0.6 34.6 37.4 8.4 8.8 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 5.3 4.9 -0.3 41.1 41.7 5.1 5.6 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 7.4 7.9 8.2 -0.5 34.8 38.6 7.8 8.5 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.0 2.4 3.1 -0.3 41.7 42.6 2.3 2.5 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 6.6 7.2 7.8 -0.5 36.0 38.7 7.2 7.4 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 6.9 7.4 8.1 -0.5 34.7 38.6 7.3 8.0 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 7.2 7.4 8.0 -0.4 34.6 39.7 7.3 7.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.0 7.1 6.7 -0.4 38.0 41.2 7.1 7.6 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 6.8 7.2 7.0 -0.7 29.8 34.3 7.4 8.1 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 6.0 6.2 4.9 -0.6 30.3 35.7 6.2 6.7 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 7.3 7.2 7.7 -0.8 29.1 34.0 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 5.9 5.9 6.7 -0.5 34.3 37.8 5.9 6.6 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 4.7 4.3 -0.2 42.5 44.2 4.3 5.1 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 7.4 7.8 8.3 -0.6 34.5 37.1 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------