***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 10.2 -0.6 40.0 44.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.9 9.9 -0.7 39.4 43.1 9.1 10.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.5 10.7 9.9 -0.5 40.6 45.1 10.1 12.1 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.4 5.6 8.1 -0.6 39.5 44.5 5.3 6.7 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.2 7.8 8.0 -0.5 40.6 45.1 7.1 8.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.1 6.3 -0.4 41.6 45.8 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.4 9.9 -0.7 38.3 43.0 8.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 1.2 1.9 6.4 -0.4 40.1 45.9 1.5 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.9 8.4 -0.5 41.5 45.1 8.2 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.2 7.0 -0.4 40.9 45.6 8.1 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.6 7.6 -0.4 40.7 45.4 8.0 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.3 6.9 7.1 -0.4 40.6 45.6 6.8 7.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.4 6.6 -0.4 43.3 45.3 7.6 8.7 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 9.0 9.4 8.4 -0.4 41.1 46.0 9.1 10.0 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.8 8.7 -0.6 36.6 43.6 9.5 10.4 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.3 7.3 -0.4 43.4 45.9 8.7 9.5 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.5 9.6 -0.8 36.9 41.7 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.2 6.4 -0.3 39.8 45.9 6.6 7.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.4 9.8 -0.6 39.8 43.9 8.9 10.5 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.7 4.8 -0.3 41.1 46.4 3.4 4.1 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.8 8.8 9.4 -0.5 40.9 45.1 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.0 9.5 -0.7 38.2 42.4 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.4 9.6 -0.5 40.0 45.2 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.3 8.2 -0.4 39.9 45.7 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.5 9.1 8.8 -0.6 38.8 44.1 8.6 10.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.9 7.7 6.7 -0.5 39.1 44.7 7.5 8.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.7 9.5 9.5 -0.6 39.4 44.6 8.9 10.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.8 8.4 -0.5 39.8 45.2 7.5 8.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.2 5.8 -0.3 40.4 46.5 6.0 7.0 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.7 10.0 -0.6 39.6 43.8 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------