***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.7 -1.0 31.4 38.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 7.5 7.8 8.6 -0.9 31.5 39.1 7.9 9.4 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 9.7 9.8 8.5 -0.9 32.2 39.4 9.9 11.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.5 4.7 6.7 -1.0 33.1 36.3 4.7 5.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 6.3 6.9 6.6 -1.0 32.7 36.6 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.9 4.8 -0.9 34.5 38.1 5.8 6.5 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 7.6 8.0 8.5 -1.0 31.4 38.3 8.1 9.6 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.5 0.7 5.0 -1.0 33.2 37.0 0.7 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 7.5 7.5 7.1 -1.0 32.8 37.4 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 7.7 7.8 5.7 -1.0 32.1 37.2 7.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 7.4 7.1 6.1 -1.0 32.7 37.0 7.1 8.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.7 5.5 5.7 -1.0 34.2 36.7 5.5 6.5 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 7.0 6.6 5.1 -1.0 35.1 36.8 6.5 7.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 8.1 7.8 7.1 -0.8 29.6 38.3 8.0 8.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 7.9 7.9 7.2 -1.0 31.5 36.9 8.0 9.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.9 8.4 5.8 -1.0 34.1 37.2 8.2 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 8.5 8.7 8.4 -1.0 29.8 38.3 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 5.1 5.5 5.0 -1.0 29.6 37.4 5.6 6.1 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 7.9 8.1 8.6 -0.8 32.2 39.7 8.2 9.5 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.3 2.1 3.2 -1.0 28.9 37.1 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 7.2 7.2 8.0 -1.0 32.1 38.2 7.3 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 7.6 7.3 8.3 -0.9 27.8 38.2 8.2 9.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 7.1 8.1 8.4 -0.8 32.2 40.1 8.1 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 7.6 7.9 6.9 -0.9 31.2 38.6 8.0 8.3 9.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 7.5 7.1 7.3 -1.1 31.4 36.9 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.7 6.9 5.2 -1.1 32.5 34.8 6.9 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 7.4 7.5 8.0 -1.1 31.2 37.4 7.6 9.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.5 6.5 6.9 -1.0 32.9 37.0 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 4.3 4.9 4.4 -1.0 28.8 37.2 5.1 6.0 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 7.8 7.6 8.7 -0.9 31.8 39.1 7.8 9.9 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------