***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.7 -0.9 32.9 39.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 5.8 6.6 7.7 -0.8 32.7 39.8 6.6 8.3 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 8.0 9.2 7.6 -0.7 36.8 40.7 9.1 9.6 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.5 3.7 5.8 -0.7 35.4 40.5 3.2 4.4 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.8 5.2 5.8 -0.7 35.1 41.1 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.8 4.1 3.9 -0.7 33.8 40.6 4.1 5.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 5.8 7.0 7.6 -0.9 30.5 38.5 7.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -1.1 -0.4 4.1 -0.7 30.5 41.3 0.0 0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 5.6 6.2 6.3 -0.7 36.8 41.5 5.8 7.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.9 6.4 4.9 -0.6 32.5 41.7 6.4 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 5.3 5.2 5.4 -0.6 32.6 41.3 5.2 6.8 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 4.0 4.2 4.9 -0.6 32.3 41.2 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 4.9 5.1 4.3 -0.7 33.9 40.2 5.1 6.1 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 6.3 6.5 6.3 -0.7 29.3 41.9 6.7 8.1 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 6.1 6.9 6.4 -0.7 37.7 40.7 6.7 8.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 6.0 7.0 5.0 -0.6 36.9 41.3 6.4 7.5 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 5.8 7.2 7.5 -0.8 31.8 39.9 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.8 4.0 4.2 -0.7 30.9 41.2 4.1 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 5.9 7.0 7.7 -0.7 33.4 40.7 7.0 8.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 1.2 1.1 2.4 -0.9 27.3 39.9 1.3 2.3 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 5.2 6.6 7.1 -0.7 36.4 41.1 6.4 6.8 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 5.3 6.1 7.5 -0.7 31.8 41.2 6.1 7.7 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 5.8 6.1 7.5 -0.7 34.0 41.6 6.1 7.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.8 6.0 6.1 -0.7 32.8 41.6 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 5.6 6.2 6.3 -0.9 30.3 38.8 6.7 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 5.0 5.5 4.4 -0.8 30.8 39.7 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 5.8 6.7 7.0 -1.0 31.2 38.2 6.7 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.6 5.0 6.1 -0.6 38.5 41.3 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.0 3.9 3.6 -0.7 30.2 41.1 3.9 4.5 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 5.9 6.9 7.7 -0.8 34.1 39.5 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------