***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 9999.0 0.0 6.6 -0.4 46.4 44.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 5.9 5.6 6.9 0.1 52.6 51.2 4.6 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 8.3 8.1 6.8 0.1 51.1 49.8 7.2 8.0 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 2.3 2.0 4.9 0.0 45.4 48.2 1.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 5.2 4.7 5.2 0.1 46.9 50.0 4.0 4.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 4.6 4.4 3.4 0.6 53.5 56.0 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 6.2 6.0 6.8 0.0 48.7 48.3 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -1.4 -1.4 3.7 0.8 56.2 59.4 -2.4 -1.7 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 6.2 6.0 5.7 0.3 49.7 51.4 4.4 6.1 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 6.3 6.3 4.5 0.6 54.1 56.8 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 6.2 6.2 5.0 0.6 51.9 55.9 4.3 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 4.5 4.4 4.2 0.6 53.5 56.3 3.3 4.3 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 5.5 5.2 4.0 0.4 46.9 52.3 4.6 5.3 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 6.5 6.3 5.9 0.4 52.9 54.4 5.0 6.2 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 6.8 6.3 6.1 0.0 43.4 47.7 5.7 6.5 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 6.7 6.1 4.5 0.3 46.4 51.4 5.1 6.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 6.4 6.3 6.8 0.2 52.7 52.3 5.0 6.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 4.0 4.2 3.9 0.7 57.2 57.4 2.6 3.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 6.0 5.8 6.9 0.1 52.2 51.4 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 61.8 61.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 6.4 6.3 6.6 0.1 48.4 50.4 4.8 6.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 5.6 5.4 6.8 0.3 52.3 53.3 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 6.1 5.9 6.6 0.1 49.8 50.9 4.5 5.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 5.5 5.8 5.7 0.5 55.4 55.3 4.2 5.2 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 6.5 5.1 5.8 -0.3 43.1 44.8 4.7 6.2 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 5.3 4.9 3.2 0.0 42.3 46.6 3.9 5.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 6.5 5.8 6.1 -0.4 44.1 43.5 4.9 6.2 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 5.3 4.6 5.5 0.2 45.8 50.4 3.9 5.1 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 2.8 3.3 3.5 1.1 64.6 64.4 1.7 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 6.3 6.1 6.9 0.0 50.3 49.5 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------