***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 49.3 50.1 56.8 106.0 60.5 53.1 30.0 43.3 53.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 42.3 44.6 53.9 103.1 56.4 52.4 26.4 37.7 46.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 52.7 53.0 55.1 102.5 55.4 51.5 36.0 48.6 58.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 50.2 62.0 67.8 100.2 54.6 49.3 58.6 61.9 70.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 38.2 49.8 64.6 96.8 50.3 47.2 43.6 49.8 63.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 57.0 47.4 77.4 93.7 49.0 47.0 39.9 48.9 66.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 45.8 46.4 52.9 100.7 55.7 50.9 26.3 43.2 49.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 80.8 96.8 70.6 99.1 54.5 49.2 79.9 94.3 102.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 36.6 51.3 63.6 97.3 51.9 47.5 37.5 49.0 66.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 41.8 57.4 72.5 97.7 51.6 48.0 45.1 57.2 67.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 37.7 47.6 60.5 96.8 50.2 47.5 36.3 47.3 66.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 46.6 55.4 58.9 97.6 53.2 48.6 46.7 53.5 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 45.7 56.9 68.1 95.8 48.5 48.7 42.5 57.2 64.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 61.2 69.5 72.2 107.9 62.9 54.7 45.8 51.4 81.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 34.3 51.5 62.2 96.7 49.4 46.2 39.1 51.8 56.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 38.2 45.6 62.4 92.8 47.4 45.6 37.2 49.0 65.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 50.2 47.9 53.3 102.6 55.1 52.7 29.8 45.2 57.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 50.3 68.5 81.0 98.9 55.2 49.2 46.4 63.2 80.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 54.2 54.0 54.4 105.1 58.6 53.5 34.4 49.6 61.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 47.4 60.0 90.2 102.7 58.4 52.3 47.3 56.0 61.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 33.6 52.0 57.8 100.5 55.2 50.0 42.6 48.6 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 41.9 43.5 56.2 110.1 63.4 56.8 32.5 38.5 45.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 28.2 51.2 56.9 107.3 61.1 54.0 28.2 35.8 54.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 69.9 69.4 69.5 100.9 55.4 50.6 39.7 65.5 74.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 59.0 57.4 70.7 104.0 57.3 52.1 40.3 53.0 62.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 52.3 50.8 62.5 97.0 53.2 50.2 43.9 50.5 53.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 50.9 54.3 66.5 105.3 59.9 52.9 34.7 46.2 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 33.6 45.6 63.6 96.0 50.2 46.3 34.5 45.6 57.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 85.0 91.4 85.7 104.5 60.6 53.7 56.1 76.0 103.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 44.0 43.1 54.3 103.5 57.4 52.2 24.4 37.2 52.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------