***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.5 16.9 14.3 111.3 65.5 51.8 7.1 10.1 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.7 12.5 100.0 61.6 50.4 3.4 9.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.9 15.0 13.1 106.4 64.1 51.0 3.6 12.0 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 20.5 21.9 17.3 109.1 65.0 53.4 9.8 17.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.7 16.4 106.2 61.8 50.9 5.5 10.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 16.3 17.0 18.3 95.1 56.3 51.3 7.5 14.3 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.8 11.5 12.5 98.3 58.8 49.7 4.9 8.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 29.3 27.8 16.3 102.8 58.6 49.5 17.5 24.8 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.9 14.5 15.8 105.0 62.8 49.6 4.3 9.0 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.0 16.7 17.6 104.5 60.4 49.4 10.2 13.0 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.9 14.5 14.6 103.9 60.4 49.4 4.2 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 9.1 15.5 13.0 98.4 56.5 48.6 8.6 14.6 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.3 15.7 97.3 56.1 50.2 6.8 10.1 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.3 23.1 16.2 108.1 65.1 50.0 7.2 13.2 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.8 16.7 15.9 110.0 66.1 53.7 5.8 9.5 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.0 14.9 99.2 56.9 49.8 5.3 12.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 15.8 13.8 12.6 95.8 58.7 49.3 5.2 12.3 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.0 17.0 19.3 104.8 58.6 49.4 9.0 11.9 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 9.2 23.7 12.5 102.2 63.6 50.7 7.0 17.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 9.4 17.5 21.2 107.8 58.8 52.3 8.4 16.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 16.6 19.3 14.2 104.3 63.7 50.4 5.7 13.3 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.1 12.4 13.0 102.3 62.9 50.4 6.2 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.2 18.0 12.8 106.4 64.9 50.1 7.4 10.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 8.4 22.1 16.0 103.8 62.3 49.1 5.9 17.3 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.5 18.8 18.9 118.4 65.9 54.9 8.2 13.5 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.4 17.0 13.4 94.6 59.5 50.7 5.9 13.9 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.5 19.0 17.7 118.2 65.1 53.6 5.0 12.4 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 16.1 15.9 15.8 104.1 62.4 52.3 8.6 13.9 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.1 19.7 19.9 108.8 61.9 50.4 8.5 16.0 28.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.9 16.7 12.9 105.3 64.3 50.9 2.6 10.5 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------