***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.3 12.7 95.5 61.9 53.2 1.4 2.5 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.9 3.6 13.1 97.9 63.0 53.8 1.8 2.5 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.4 4.7 12.6 89.0 53.4 50.0 1.4 4.2 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.6 16.1 90.7 57.2 47.7 6.2 8.3 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.0 15.1 84.0 55.8 45.9 1.7 4.6 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.8 20.5 85.6 50.9 46.3 4.2 6.5 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.8 13.0 98.8 63.5 54.9 1.2 3.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.8 17.4 17.1 88.5 56.1 46.5 8.4 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.7 14.5 82.0 55.0 45.8 2.9 4.8 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.0 17.1 83.0 53.7 44.6 2.9 6.5 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.2 6.0 13.8 80.8 57.3 43.9 2.0 4.5 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.3 13.7 85.7 55.8 46.0 3.3 5.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.7 16.4 84.4 51.7 45.4 4.7 6.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.7 12.3 17.5 96.8 61.6 51.4 3.9 6.8 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.8 8.3 15.3 95.7 60.8 48.3 2.5 6.3 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.2 15.0 80.7 52.3 43.9 1.5 4.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.0 13.7 108.4 65.9 56.2 1.2 3.5 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.4 19.4 84.3 51.5 45.4 2.7 6.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.1 6.0 13.2 98.4 62.9 53.9 1.6 3.8 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.9 22.9 94.9 58.4 49.3 3.2 7.6 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.3 13.0 88.6 58.8 49.6 2.0 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.3 6.3 14.1 114.2 65.8 57.6 1.3 4.0 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.9 8.6 13.5 97.5 61.4 52.9 2.5 5.8 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.3 5.3 16.2 86.3 53.6 47.4 2.1 5.2 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.7 8.9 16.4 95.4 63.0 50.5 0.6 5.2 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.1 5.2 14.8 87.4 58.0 46.7 2.9 4.4 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.7 7.1 15.4 97.4 63.1 52.3 1.0 3.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.4 15.6 90.8 57.9 47.4 2.4 4.3 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.7 13.4 20.9 90.9 54.1 48.1 5.0 11.1 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.9 12.8 94.1 59.9 52.3 0.5 3.0 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------