***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 19.7 23.0 18.9 158.4 77.8 61.3 5.8 12.9 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 14.9 14.3 17.9 143.3 76.5 59.8 4.5 7.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 17.4 18.5 18.1 147.3 75.2 60.7 5.7 10.8 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.7 19.8 21.8 142.6 75.8 61.0 8.0 11.6 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.7 18.2 21.2 136.6 76.5 59.5 4.9 7.3 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.6 24.5 113.7 64.8 56.8 4.3 7.9 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 13.8 16.0 18.0 141.8 73.1 60.0 4.2 7.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 18.1 30.8 23.1 126.8 70.9 59.8 10.5 14.1 25.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.7 14.0 21.0 132.8 74.1 59.7 4.9 9.1 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.4 19.3 23.7 128.2 72.6 59.3 6.1 9.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.5 15.9 19.6 129.8 74.9 59.5 4.3 8.4 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.0 18.3 19.9 130.1 73.7 60.4 2.3 9.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 15.4 16.7 23.0 128.0 71.0 60.3 2.5 9.6 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.6 19.7 23.0 137.9 69.6 57.8 6.7 9.4 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.4 12.9 19.5 123.5 67.5 57.0 2.6 5.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.7 17.9 20.3 122.6 72.8 58.4 4.3 9.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 13.7 17.1 131.4 70.7 56.7 5.4 7.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 16.8 21.7 26.7 126.6 70.2 58.6 6.9 13.1 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.6 20.0 17.8 145.6 76.5 59.2 4.3 6.3 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.3 28.9 125.0 66.6 59.3 6.6 11.0 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.2 14.7 18.9 141.3 74.0 60.2 3.6 8.6 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.2 14.4 17.1 133.8 71.5 55.8 5.2 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.9 18.4 145.6 71.5 57.4 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.8 19.4 22.9 132.0 71.2 58.1 5.7 11.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 18.8 24.2 22.8 146.6 74.5 62.0 5.3 7.3 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 12.5 11.4 22.0 131.9 71.9 61.9 2.5 7.7 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 18.7 20.0 21.7 151.4 75.1 62.1 3.5 9.8 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.7 15.4 20.2 126.7 69.2 57.8 4.2 7.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.0 29.6 28.1 132.0 72.5 60.5 7.5 13.9 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 16.8 18.9 18.1 148.6 76.9 60.9 4.1 8.7 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------