***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 5.9 5.2 10.9 70.4 35.1 34.1 5.0 14.1 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 4.2 6.9 10.3 74.7 45.5 36.7 6.1 7.4 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 6.9 12.4 11.2 75.0 42.7 36.3 10.7 13.7 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 7.9 13.2 12.6 67.3 38.1 32.0 11.3 15.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 7.0 7.4 11.9 67.2 36.5 32.8 5.7 15.1 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.4 11.1 14.1 79.3 47.4 39.8 8.0 11.8 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 2.9 5.8 9.4 67.5 37.2 33.9 5.1 9.1 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 16.3 22.7 14.1 79.2 48.0 40.3 17.2 23.3 26.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.6 11.6 12.3 73.3 43.0 37.1 6.8 13.6 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 8.6 11.4 14.1 77.1 45.3 39.1 8.7 15.4 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 6.2 12.3 12.5 77.0 50.3 38.9 7.2 12.3 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 9.1 12.5 12.2 77.7 48.9 40.0 8.6 12.7 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 9.0 11.5 13.0 74.2 43.6 38.7 6.8 15.7 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.2 18.3 15.4 90.3 56.4 44.4 11.1 15.7 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 3.9 6.8 11.5 63.9 37.5 29.4 5.1 12.1 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 6.8 10.5 12.2 71.6 43.4 36.5 6.9 13.9 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.5 9.9 75.4 44.0 38.7 4.1 8.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.6 11.7 15.6 80.4 46.6 40.6 6.6 13.4 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.5 9.1 11.0 79.0 48.2 38.4 5.4 9.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.3 10.5 17.1 82.4 45.4 40.9 6.5 11.4 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 7.5 10.9 11.8 74.2 43.0 36.6 7.6 13.6 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.5 10.8 12.1 91.3 52.6 43.3 7.2 9.8 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 5.5 11.9 12.2 84.2 51.0 40.8 5.7 11.8 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 8.5 12.6 14.5 83.5 48.8 41.4 8.9 12.8 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 5.7 9.2 12.7 65.5 37.6 30.8 5.4 15.3 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.2 6.8 12.3 73.7 44.9 38.9 3.7 8.9 19.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 4.8 4.0 11.7 65.1 33.2 31.3 4.0 12.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 4.4 5.5 11.9 67.2 39.8 31.5 4.0 9.4 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.9 18.0 16.7 86.3 49.2 43.1 11.2 18.3 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 3.5 8.4 10.4 72.6 41.0 35.3 4.5 10.8 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------