***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 21.2 21.7 19.9 1.0 72.4 66.5 19.4 19.9 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 21.2 21.7 19.8 1.0 71.0 66.7 19.1 20.0 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 21.2 21.6 19.9 0.9 70.2 65.7 19.3 19.9 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.3 17.8 0.6 66.8 62.4 12.1 12.7 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 20.9 21.2 18.3 0.8 68.9 64.4 19.4 19.9 21.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 19.4 19.6 16.4 0.8 71.1 65.1 17.9 18.5 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 20.8 21.2 19.8 1.0 70.9 66.3 18.8 19.5 20.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 8.4 8.7 16.6 0.8 69.1 64.0 6.9 7.4 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 20.4 20.8 18.9 0.9 71.7 65.5 18.9 19.4 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 20.2 20.5 17.5 0.8 69.6 64.4 18.8 19.2 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 20.7 21.0 18.0 0.9 70.7 65.6 18.9 19.6 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 19.7 19.8 17.5 0.8 70.2 65.2 18.0 18.7 19.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 20.7 20.7 17.2 0.8 69.6 65.1 18.7 19.6 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 20.2 20.9 18.4 0.7 65.2 61.7 19.1 19.9 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 20.6 20.5 18.3 0.6 64.4 62.3 19.4 19.7 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 21.0 21.0 17.7 0.8 70.4 65.2 19.6 20.3 20.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 20.4 20.6 19.5 0.8 68.1 64.5 18.4 19.3 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 19.9 20.1 16.8 0.7 68.2 62.5 18.3 18.9 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 20.9 21.2 19.9 1.0 70.5 66.6 18.6 19.6 20.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 14.8 15.1 14.4 0.6 67.6 61.3 13.5 14.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 20.8 21.2 19.5 0.8 69.0 64.5 19.1 19.7 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 21.0 21.2 19.4 0.7 66.1 63.0 19.0 19.8 21.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 21.2 21.5 19.7 0.9 67.9 65.2 18.9 20.2 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 20.5 20.8 18.4 0.8 67.6 63.3 18.8 19.6 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 20.8 20.9 18.3 0.7 68.8 62.9 19.0 19.8 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 19.9 19.8 16.7 0.8 70.2 64.6 18.4 18.9 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 20.7 20.9 19.1 0.8 71.3 64.6 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 20.7 20.5 18.1 0.6 66.9 62.9 19.4 19.8 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.0 15.7 0.6 67.4 61.4 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 20.9 21.3 20.0 1.0 71.4 67.1 18.9 19.8 21.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------