***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.1 23.2 22.2 0.8 61.1 57.4 19.8 21.9 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.8 23.1 22.1 0.8 59.5 57.6 20.1 22.2 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.7 22.2 0.8 59.5 57.4 20.2 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 13.3 15.0 20.2 0.5 54.8 54.6 13.0 14.8 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.0 20.4 0.6 53.1 55.1 20.6 21.9 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 20.9 20.5 18.5 0.5 51.2 55.1 18.6 20.1 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 22.5 22.6 22.0 0.8 60.0 57.4 19.5 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.3 18.7 0.4 51.0 54.2 8.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.4 20.8 0.6 54.1 55.5 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.3 19.5 0.5 51.6 54.5 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.6 20.0 0.6 51.9 55.8 20.4 21.6 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.3 20.9 19.6 0.6 51.3 55.4 18.9 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 22.2 21.5 19.2 0.6 50.4 55.6 20.2 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.0 20.4 0.5 53.6 54.9 20.2 21.8 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 22.7 22.2 20.5 0.5 55.5 55.4 20.4 22.1 23.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.2 19.7 0.6 52.2 55.9 20.8 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.9 21.7 0.7 55.7 56.0 19.6 21.6 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 21.0 20.7 18.8 0.4 53.1 53.9 19.4 20.4 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.6 22.1 0.8 59.7 57.6 19.4 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.8 16.4 0.2 52.0 52.4 14.2 15.7 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.9 21.6 0.7 56.5 56.0 20.2 21.7 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.6 21.5 0.6 54.2 54.9 20.1 22.3 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.7 23.0 21.9 0.8 60.4 57.3 20.2 22.2 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.5 20.5 0.6 54.3 55.5 19.7 21.4 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 20.4 22.4 20.5 0.6 55.4 55.1 20.1 22.2 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.7 20.6 18.8 0.4 49.0 54.4 19.4 21.0 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 20.2 22.5 21.3 0.7 57.8 56.2 20.4 21.7 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.3 20.4 0.5 55.1 55.0 20.4 21.9 23.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.8 17.7 0.4 53.0 53.4 14.1 15.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.7 22.2 0.9 60.7 58.0 19.6 21.7 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------