***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.6 20.5 0.6 52.3 53.4 20.6 22.3 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.0 20.2 0.3 47.8 51.4 20.7 22.2 24.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 22.3 22.1 20.5 0.5 54.6 52.9 20.7 21.6 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 12.6 14.7 18.6 0.4 52.1 53.2 12.8 14.5 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.0 22.8 18.9 0.6 56.8 55.0 20.8 21.4 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 20.6 21.2 17.1 0.7 60.9 56.6 18.0 19.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.3 20.2 0.4 48.5 51.6 20.2 21.4 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.6 17.4 0.7 58.6 56.0 6.8 9.0 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 21.6 22.1 19.4 0.7 58.5 55.2 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.8 18.2 0.7 58.2 55.4 19.8 21.3 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.2 18.6 0.8 59.3 57.0 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 20.9 21.1 18.3 0.8 60.1 57.0 18.4 20.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 21.6 21.9 17.8 0.7 60.3 57.0 19.1 21.0 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 19.8 21.7 18.7 0.2 49.1 50.0 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 20.2 22.2 18.8 0.3 54.9 52.8 20.2 22.1 22.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.5 18.3 0.7 58.9 56.7 19.8 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.5 21.0 19.8 0.1 47.1 49.7 19.9 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.2 20.8 17.4 0.5 56.3 53.4 18.8 20.4 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.3 20.3 0.4 49.3 51.4 20.1 21.4 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 13.8 15.7 15.1 0.5 56.9 53.3 13.4 15.3 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.4 20.0 0.6 55.7 54.0 20.4 21.4 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 19.8 21.2 19.7 0.0 45.5 48.0 20.7 21.4 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.1 20.1 0.4 51.7 51.1 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.7 18.9 0.5 54.4 52.4 19.8 21.1 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.7 18.9 0.4 50.4 52.3 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 20.6 21.0 17.5 0.7 61.9 57.4 18.5 19.8 21.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.4 19.6 0.4 50.3 52.4 20.5 21.4 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.4 18.8 0.4 54.3 53.9 20.3 22.2 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.6 15.6 16.3 0.4 54.4 52.8 13.7 14.9 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.8 20.4 0.4 49.9 52.2 20.2 21.8 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------