***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 20.2 20.2 18.8 0.5 57.1 56.7 18.7 19.6 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 18.1 20.2 18.8 0.6 57.4 57.2 18.1 20.0 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 20.3 20.1 18.7 0.3 56.4 55.3 18.9 19.6 20.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.7 16.7 0.0 50.0 52.0 11.1 11.7 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 20.4 19.9 16.9 0.0 51.3 52.0 19.1 19.8 21.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 18.8 18.6 15.2 0.2 53.9 53.5 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 17.6 19.8 18.8 0.6 59.2 57.3 17.8 19.4 20.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.7 15.3 -0.1 50.6 50.7 6.5 7.7 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 20.1 19.6 17.4 0.1 52.8 52.4 18.1 19.5 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.3 16.1 -0.1 51.5 51.0 18.1 19.2 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 20.0 19.5 16.5 0.1 52.4 52.3 18.5 19.4 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 19.4 18.7 16.2 0.1 52.4 52.2 17.8 18.6 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 20.1 19.5 15.8 0.2 52.6 53.1 18.7 19.5 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 20.6 20.0 17.0 0.0 50.5 51.2 18.6 19.9 21.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 20.0 19.6 17.0 0.1 51.0 53.4 18.1 19.5 20.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 20.7 20.1 16.3 0.1 52.2 52.6 19.0 20.0 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 17.3 19.8 18.5 0.5 55.9 56.2 17.0 19.0 20.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.4 18.9 15.4 -0.2 52.2 49.6 17.6 18.7 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 20.3 19.7 18.8 0.5 56.6 56.8 18.0 19.6 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.1 13.0 -0.3 48.4 48.0 13.1 14.2 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 20.3 19.8 18.1 0.2 53.7 53.6 18.7 19.8 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 18.3 20.1 18.3 0.3 53.5 54.3 18.0 19.8 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 20.7 20.3 18.5 0.4 55.3 55.6 18.4 19.9 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 20.2 19.7 17.0 0.0 54.3 51.5 18.2 19.7 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 20.1 19.9 17.2 0.2 53.2 54.0 18.3 19.4 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 19.4 19.1 15.5 0.2 53.8 53.9 18.1 19.0 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 20.0 19.7 18.1 0.4 56.6 55.7 18.3 19.3 20.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 19.9 19.3 16.8 0.0 50.6 52.2 18.7 19.2 20.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.1 14.3 -0.3 50.6 48.7 12.8 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 17.8 20.2 18.9 0.6 58.4 57.3 17.9 19.5 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------