***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 17.9 18.2 18.2 2.0 78.0 70.6 15.7 17.3 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 18.0 18.6 18.3 2.1 81.8 73.0 15.0 16.7 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 18.2 18.4 18.3 2.0 74.6 69.9 15.9 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 10.7 10.8 15.7 1.6 65.9 65.7 8.7 9.5 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 18.2 18.1 16.9 1.9 68.7 68.0 16.5 17.1 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 16.7 16.1 14.8 1.8 68.3 67.3 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 17.8 18.2 18.1 2.0 79.3 72.4 14.7 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 6.2 5.3 15.1 2.0 68.9 69.3 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 17.6 17.7 17.8 2.1 71.2 69.4 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 18.1 17.9 16.2 2.0 68.9 69.2 15.9 16.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 17.8 17.8 16.7 2.0 68.3 68.7 16.0 16.8 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 17.2 17.0 15.9 2.0 69.7 69.4 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 18.0 17.8 16.0 1.9 68.3 68.8 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 17.9 18.2 17.4 2.0 73.4 69.6 16.1 17.1 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 17.4 18.0 17.1 1.4 66.8 65.0 15.8 17.1 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 18.2 17.6 16.4 1.9 69.4 68.5 16.5 16.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 17.5 18.0 17.9 2.0 81.3 72.6 14.3 16.3 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 17.8 17.4 15.4 2.0 69.4 69.2 15.5 16.5 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 17.7 18.2 18.4 2.2 81.4 72.9 15.1 16.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 12.3 12.2 13.1 2.1 70.3 69.8 9.5 10.4 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 17.9 18.3 18.2 1.9 69.5 68.0 15.8 16.8 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 18.1 18.6 18.0 2.0 82.6 72.9 15.2 16.9 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 18.0 18.4 18.3 2.1 77.5 71.6 15.7 17.1 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 17.8 17.9 17.1 2.0 70.5 69.1 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 17.9 17.9 16.8 1.6 66.8 66.6 15.7 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 17.1 17.4 14.9 1.8 69.0 68.3 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 17.8 18.0 17.5 1.8 73.3 68.8 15.4 16.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 17.7 17.9 16.4 1.6 67.5 65.8 15.8 17.1 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 12.2 12.1 14.6 2.0 69.6 69.4 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 18.0 18.4 18.4 2.1 80.4 72.5 15.0 16.7 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------