***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9.1 9.2 9.6 0.8 74.2 68.4 7.8 8.7 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 8.9 9.2 9.5 0.8 74.7 68.2 7.7 8.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 10.6 10.8 9.4 0.8 75.2 68.8 9.3 10.1 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 5.0 5.2 6.9 0.5 68.1 63.0 4.2 4.7 5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 7.5 7.5 7.1 0.6 70.1 66.3 6.1 6.6 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 6.1 6.2 5.2 0.5 69.9 64.0 4.9 5.7 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 8.9 9.2 9.5 0.8 74.3 68.4 7.4 8.5 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 1.1 1.1 5.3 0.6 71.1 65.9 -0.1 0.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 8.1 8.2 7.6 0.7 71.8 67.7 6.7 7.3 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.2 5.9 0.6 71.3 66.4 6.9 7.4 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 7.7 7.7 6.6 0.6 70.9 66.8 6.5 7.0 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 6.1 6.2 6.0 0.6 71.1 66.2 5.1 5.6 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.4 5.6 0.6 69.5 65.8 6.2 6.7 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 8.7 8.7 7.4 0.5 69.8 64.0 7.7 8.1 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.8 7.6 0.5 68.9 63.5 7.5 8.3 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.4 6.3 0.6 70.1 65.9 6.9 8.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 9.1 9.4 9.2 0.7 71.5 66.6 8.2 8.5 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 6.1 6.3 5.2 0.5 70.6 64.4 5.0 5.4 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.0 9.4 0.8 75.1 68.5 7.5 8.3 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 3.1 3.2 3.4 0.5 70.1 64.0 2.1 2.4 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 8.1 8.1 8.7 0.7 72.0 67.9 6.9 7.3 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 7.9 8.4 9.1 0.7 72.8 66.6 7.4 7.8 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 8.5 8.7 9.0 0.7 74.5 68.1 7.1 7.7 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.3 7.2 0.6 72.5 66.3 7.0 7.2 7.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 8.6 8.8 7.9 0.6 70.8 64.8 7.4 7.8 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.0 5.7 0.6 69.9 65.6 5.9 6.7 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 9.4 9.5 8.8 0.7 72.8 66.7 7.0 8.3 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.8 7.2 0.5 69.2 63.6 5.7 6.3 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.4 4.5 0.5 70.0 63.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 9.1 9.4 9.6 0.8 74.9 68.7 7.4 8.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------