***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.2 9.9 0.3 56.5 54.0 8.2 10.2 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.1 9.7 0.1 54.9 50.3 7.6 9.8 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.8 9.6 0.2 55.9 52.8 9.8 11.4 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.1 7.3 0.1 51.4 51.2 4.4 6.1 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.5 7.3 0.2 53.2 52.2 6.3 7.9 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.5 5.7 0.3 55.5 54.5 5.4 6.4 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.0 9.7 0.2 55.5 51.2 7.7 9.5 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 1.8 1.5 5.7 0.2 50.4 52.0 0.2 1.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.8 7.8 0.3 55.7 53.1 7.2 8.5 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.8 8.6 6.3 0.2 52.4 52.0 7.3 8.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.8 6.9 0.3 52.9 53.3 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.4 6.5 0.2 52.1 53.5 5.4 6.2 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.5 6.0 0.3 54.8 54.3 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.7 7.6 -0.1 50.0 47.9 8.0 8.7 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.0 7.9 0.2 52.1 52.7 8.4 9.0 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.3 6.6 0.2 53.4 53.4 8.1 9.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.1 9.4 0.0 50.2 48.3 8.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.0 5.5 0.1 51.0 50.4 5.3 5.9 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.6 9.6 0.1 54.0 50.4 8.0 9.4 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.2 2.9 3.9 0.1 50.9 50.9 1.9 2.8 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.1 8.9 0.3 55.8 53.9 7.0 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.6 8.7 9.2 -0.1 47.5 46.9 7.6 8.9 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.3 9.2 0.1 52.0 50.5 7.4 8.9 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.5 7.5 0.1 51.8 50.5 7.9 8.5 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.8 10.3 8.1 0.2 56.0 53.0 6.9 9.5 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.7 6.3 0.4 56.6 55.7 6.5 7.5 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.5 11.0 9.1 0.3 56.6 53.6 6.8 10.0 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.3 7.5 0.1 51.9 51.7 6.2 7.0 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.0 4.9 0.0 49.6 49.6 4.8 6.0 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.5 9.8 0.2 57.0 51.7 7.8 10.0 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------