***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.6 7.7 1.1 70.6 65.9 5.2 6.9 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 7.1 7.4 7.7 1.4 73.9 70.7 4.1 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 8.9 9.1 7.5 1.3 75.7 68.9 6.4 8.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 2.3 2.4 4.6 0.6 54.2 57.0 1.4 1.9 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.4 6.2 5.4 1.0 63.7 63.4 3.8 5.0 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.6 4.7 3.0 0.7 54.7 59.1 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 7.1 7.6 7.7 1.3 74.5 69.2 4.7 6.0 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -0.8 -1.4 3.2 0.9 61.6 63.6 -2.3 -1.7 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.7 5.8 0.9 64.3 63.5 4.6 6.1 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.7 4.0 0.8 62.3 62.2 4.4 6.2 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.2 4.6 0.8 58.4 60.9 4.4 6.0 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.8 3.7 0.8 59.0 62.1 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.6 3.7 0.8 59.3 61.7 4.5 5.2 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.9 5.9 1.2 74.9 68.5 5.1 5.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 6.8 6.6 5.8 0.4 53.4 55.3 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.4 4.3 0.8 57.7 61.5 5.5 6.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 7.1 7.2 7.4 1.4 71.6 70.0 5.0 6.4 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.4 3.1 0.9 61.9 62.6 2.7 3.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 7.4 7.6 7.7 1.4 75.0 71.3 4.3 6.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.0 60.9 63.6 0.2 1.0 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.4 7.0 1.0 71.0 65.1 4.4 6.1 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 6.6 7.0 7.6 1.5 78.7 73.3 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 6.9 7.1 7.2 1.3 72.4 70.4 4.0 5.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 6.8 6.9 5.5 1.1 71.1 66.7 4.3 5.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.5 7.1 6.2 0.8 60.5 60.5 4.2 6.2 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.7 3.5 0.9 60.4 62.3 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.2 6.9 0.9 65.8 62.5 4.8 6.6 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.4 5.4 5.2 0.6 55.3 57.8 4.0 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.9 2.6 0.9 62.1 63.5 1.2 2.4 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 7.3 7.6 7.9 1.4 75.0 70.0 4.8 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------