***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 28.5 34.3 51.9 82.3 35.0 37.6 32.8 43.6 49.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 26.6 27.6 44.4 79.4 35.3 36.3 26.8 41.4 52.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 38.7 40.8 49.8 80.6 34.5 36.3 40.6 50.1 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 52.8 60.2 60.8 83.1 36.5 36.3 59.9 64.4 72.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 37.1 46.0 56.9 82.4 37.1 36.6 43.4 51.0 58.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 33.7 40.5 60.5 80.0 33.0 33.9 40.5 49.5 61.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 28.4 33.7 45.6 80.8 37.1 37.2 27.6 42.9 53.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 95.4 80.9 64.9 89.7 41.2 42.3 77.4 89.6 102.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 35.9 41.1 56.1 80.6 35.1 36.1 40.3 48.8 65.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 41.1 48.0 64.9 84.9 36.1 38.6 45.5 56.1 67.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 40.9 40.5 55.1 83.2 36.9 37.3 39.2 50.2 68.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 45.4 50.5 56.2 87.9 41.6 41.7 46.5 51.6 62.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 44.1 50.7 61.3 86.1 40.5 39.8 43.7 56.9 62.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 43.5 47.5 67.0 83.9 38.6 38.2 46.2 56.8 75.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 37.8 37.1 54.6 81.3 37.8 36.4 36.3 46.3 56.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 38.5 41.6 56.9 83.5 37.0 37.9 38.3 49.8 68.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 33.6 39.4 44.9 82.1 39.9 38.5 32.9 45.1 57.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 48.9 47.0 69.2 86.2 35.6 39.2 46.6 67.7 79.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 34.3 38.5 45.9 80.0 34.4 36.0 37.7 50.8 57.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 57.4 53.1 76.2 95.9 46.9 45.9 46.2 54.0 61.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 35.7 44.5 53.2 80.8 36.7 36.6 42.9 47.2 58.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 30.8 38.2 47.0 82.9 38.4 38.2 38.1 40.0 50.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 31.7 32.9 49.7 81.8 34.8 36.3 32.5 43.5 54.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 47.8 43.4 61.4 82.9 35.6 37.3 39.7 68.3 75.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 37.1 41.7 59.7 82.0 36.7 36.5 36.2 53.1 62.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 36.6 48.2 59.0 89.2 42.3 42.3 44.9 50.9 53.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 30.7 36.6 55.5 81.2 34.9 36.4 36.2 40.6 60.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 33.5 38.5 58.0 82.5 37.1 36.8 37.9 43.8 54.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 58.0 63.4 72.1 89.6 39.9 41.4 59.8 76.8 105.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 27.1 31.9 46.2 79.8 35.0 36.1 30.9 42.0 54.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------