***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 6.6 14.5 18.9 120.0 63.5 50.0 7.2 11.8 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.3 13.4 15.6 107.6 61.4 50.0 4.1 8.9 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.7 16.4 18.7 120.2 67.1 50.2 5.3 11.8 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 9.6 22.3 20.3 109.3 62.7 48.6 9.6 20.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.2 14.6 19.2 109.7 63.9 49.6 5.5 7.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.0 12.5 18.2 91.6 53.1 45.7 8.1 11.0 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 5.5 11.9 15.9 108.2 60.8 49.6 4.5 10.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 14.7 32.6 21.9 116.6 65.9 54.0 16.7 25.9 32.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 5.1 14.2 20.0 110.8 62.9 50.5 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.5 12.8 23.1 115.2 64.6 52.7 9.7 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.8 16.2 18.4 113.7 65.6 51.1 6.4 9.8 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.7 15.8 18.3 112.5 66.1 52.1 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.8 14.5 19.4 106.7 62.5 50.8 8.7 11.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.1 23.8 27.0 131.3 72.5 55.1 7.5 15.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.5 11.3 18.6 105.4 63.0 46.7 5.5 8.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.2 13.5 18.4 106.1 62.6 49.4 7.3 11.6 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.6 13.9 15.6 107.3 61.5 51.4 5.0 11.5 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 19.0 26.0 121.4 69.1 53.7 6.4 10.0 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.5 21.4 16.8 113.3 64.7 50.9 9.7 17.2 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.3 21.0 26.8 129.0 70.1 56.9 9.1 13.6 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.2 16.8 19.2 115.1 64.5 50.8 6.5 10.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.8 17.0 17.4 114.9 65.8 54.2 5.9 9.8 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.2 20.5 19.2 123.8 69.5 52.4 6.9 13.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.3 23.9 24.3 127.4 71.6 52.8 5.7 11.4 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 6.2 17.1 21.3 116.0 65.1 49.6 7.2 11.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.4 17.6 107.9 60.7 51.0 8.1 12.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 6.6 17.6 20.1 117.0 63.4 49.8 7.2 12.3 18.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.9 15.8 19.2 105.4 62.4 48.0 7.4 10.6 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.4 32.0 26.9 126.5 71.1 55.1 9.8 15.9 25.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.8 15.8 16.5 111.6 61.3 49.9 2.4 10.1 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------