***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.1 4.1 14.7 93.2 59.0 50.6 2.2 3.6 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.1 12.3 90.2 55.6 49.3 1.8 2.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.0 5.6 13.4 86.4 56.6 48.0 2.2 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.3 16.7 92.2 54.1 49.0 6.2 7.9 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.4 5.0 15.3 88.8 54.6 48.0 3.0 4.8 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.9 17.2 91.5 52.8 49.2 3.8 8.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.9 12.9 95.3 55.7 50.5 1.2 4.0 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.6 11.3 16.0 92.4 53.2 48.7 7.9 9.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.0 14.5 82.7 53.5 46.2 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.2 16.1 86.1 51.0 46.4 2.9 5.9 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.5 14.0 88.6 52.6 47.9 1.2 4.3 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.0 14.1 91.7 54.7 49.7 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.9 8.0 17.1 96.8 57.3 51.8 3.9 6.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.3 8.0 16.8 83.2 51.5 46.5 5.4 8.0 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.4 5.5 15.0 91.3 55.5 48.1 2.8 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.3 15.5 92.6 56.8 49.8 2.0 4.2 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.6 12.8 95.9 58.2 50.4 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 6.4 16.8 84.3 49.3 45.7 2.9 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.8 12.5 88.1 55.9 48.4 1.9 4.3 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.5 18.8 95.8 54.1 48.8 4.0 7.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.8 4.8 13.9 83.1 54.4 47.2 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.3 13.6 96.4 58.9 49.8 0.8 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.8 13.3 86.8 56.6 47.7 2.8 5.6 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.3 15.1 80.7 51.3 45.4 3.2 5.8 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.3 16.9 93.3 56.4 50.1 1.9 5.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.4 6.2 16.1 98.0 56.0 52.1 2.4 3.8 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.8 16.0 93.9 58.6 50.9 2.4 3.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.9 4.2 15.8 90.0 54.6 48.8 2.5 3.7 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.6 10.8 17.2 85.9 49.6 46.1 3.3 11.3 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.6 5.1 12.9 90.6 56.2 49.5 0.6 3.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------