***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.1 14.5 11.7 76.6 51.0 44.1 5.5 14.1 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.0 10.7 77.5 49.4 41.7 3.2 7.2 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.1 9.0 11.1 71.8 47.5 41.5 5.9 9.4 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.7 14.6 16.3 98.1 58.8 49.8 8.1 11.1 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.8 8.5 14.4 87.0 49.8 46.1 4.8 8.6 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.1 17.6 95.1 54.8 49.1 3.8 9.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.1 6.8 10.8 80.0 50.9 43.2 3.9 6.7 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.7 22.4 17.4 101.9 60.8 53.0 10.0 14.4 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.2 8.8 13.8 82.4 49.0 44.6 5.5 9.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.8 16.1 90.4 53.7 48.0 6.1 10.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.5 8.7 14.6 86.7 52.3 46.1 5.3 8.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.0 15.6 98.1 59.6 51.2 7.3 9.4 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.0 9.7 16.5 94.2 55.6 49.6 4.3 9.0 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 8.0 14.1 72.9 46.4 40.6 6.0 9.1 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.3 15.4 101.2 62.6 50.4 2.5 6.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.0 15.4 90.6 53.5 47.6 4.5 8.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.5 10.8 83.4 51.2 42.4 4.4 6.4 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.6 15.5 16.7 90.0 54.2 47.4 6.8 13.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 6.6 10.7 75.1 48.3 41.2 3.0 6.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.5 13.4 20.0 105.9 59.9 54.1 4.7 10.4 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.7 7.4 12.8 80.7 49.0 44.7 3.5 7.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.4 7.5 10.3 75.6 48.5 39.8 4.0 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.2 10.8 70.3 45.6 39.8 2.7 6.0 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.3 8.7 13.7 76.0 48.7 41.7 4.8 9.2 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.6 8.8 13.9 80.1 47.9 43.8 5.2 8.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.2 18.1 107.6 61.5 53.7 2.4 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.6 7.9 12.5 75.4 47.3 42.6 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.3 12.9 16.1 100.3 61.4 49.9 4.6 7.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 16.7 18.1 94.4 55.1 49.0 7.7 15.2 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.7 8.0 11.0 76.2 49.4 42.7 4.1 8.4 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------