***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 4.2 5.1 6.7 40.9 25.5 24.1 7.5 10.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 4.7 4.6 5.9 41.8 25.5 25.4 5.6 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 7.5 10.3 6.6 43.1 26.5 25.0 11.3 13.9 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 9.1 9.4 7.5 37.8 22.0 21.5 14.2 19.6 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 6.1 10.1 8.0 45.0 27.8 24.9 10.9 14.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 5.8 5.7 7.5 40.7 24.8 23.4 7.4 10.8 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 4.0 3.4 6.0 40.9 28.0 25.5 4.9 10.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 15.4 16.7 9.6 50.2 27.9 27.1 19.4 25.9 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 5.1 7.0 7.8 45.2 26.3 24.6 8.8 14.8 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 7.7 8.3 9.6 48.4 26.5 25.8 12.2 18.0 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 5.2 8.6 8.1 46.7 30.3 26.2 10.5 16.9 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 6.6 7.0 8.3 50.5 30.1 28.0 8.2 13.8 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 7.9 9.3 8.2 46.3 28.0 26.1 12.3 19.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 9.5 12.5 9.1 46.2 29.0 26.2 14.2 18.1 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 5.0 5.2 5.5 31.2 24.0 20.1 9.0 14.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 5.4 7.8 7.6 44.9 28.2 25.3 9.4 15.1 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 3.6 3.7 5.7 41.1 27.0 24.9 5.3 10.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 7.4 5.4 9.7 47.8 24.4 25.2 10.3 14.6 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 4.3 5.2 6.0 42.0 25.6 25.3 6.4 10.6 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 5.4 6.5 10.6 52.6 27.9 27.7 8.7 10.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 8.3 9.1 7.3 43.8 24.1 24.6 9.4 15.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 3.4 5.9 5.6 41.0 29.8 24.8 6.8 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 5.4 6.6 6.5 44.4 28.1 26.0 7.8 12.1 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 8.2 8.6 8.3 45.7 28.4 25.6 9.7 14.6 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 6.5 5.3 7.5 40.0 22.6 23.5 7.8 16.3 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 5.5 3.4 7.2 43.4 27.2 26.1 4.9 13.0 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 5.8 4.9 7.0 39.8 23.9 23.4 8.8 13.6 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 4.7 4.4 6.9 37.3 23.7 21.7 6.9 11.4 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 13.4 11.7 10.0 50.0 26.5 26.6 13.1 20.0 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 4.0 4.0 5.8 40.0 24.7 24.2 5.0 11.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------