***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 22.3 23.6 20.8 1.1 59.8 58.0 20.3 21.8 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 22.8 23.1 20.6 1.0 58.9 57.5 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 22.8 23.5 21.1 1.2 61.2 58.4 20.4 22.3 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.2 18.4 0.9 58.8 56.6 13.6 14.8 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.7 18.9 0.8 57.7 55.9 20.8 21.7 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 20.9 21.2 16.9 1.0 62.9 57.4 19.2 20.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.7 20.5 0.9 58.5 56.9 20.1 21.7 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.3 17.1 0.6 55.3 54.3 8.1 9.8 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.7 22.3 19.3 0.9 59.1 56.8 20.0 21.2 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.9 22.1 18.0 0.8 58.3 55.7 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.1 22.4 18.7 0.7 58.2 55.3 20.4 21.6 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.0 21.1 18.3 0.6 56.4 54.5 19.3 20.4 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.0 17.5 0.7 58.8 55.3 20.1 21.4 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.9 18.9 0.8 58.6 55.7 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 22.2 23.1 19.5 1.1 62.6 58.9 20.9 21.7 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.9 18.3 0.8 59.8 55.6 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.0 20.3 0.9 59.8 56.6 19.8 21.6 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.2 21.7 17.4 0.7 57.5 55.1 19.2 20.6 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.8 20.8 1.1 59.2 57.9 19.5 21.9 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.1 14.6 0.5 55.1 54.0 14.3 15.7 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.8 20.2 1.0 59.2 57.3 20.1 21.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.8 23.0 20.3 0.9 59.9 57.0 20.3 22.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.8 23.4 20.8 1.1 60.8 57.8 20.5 22.3 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 21.7 22.6 19.0 0.9 60.4 56.5 20.3 21.2 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.6 18.9 0.9 58.6 57.3 20.3 21.7 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.3 21.6 17.5 0.7 59.6 55.1 19.4 20.7 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.5 19.9 1.0 59.3 57.8 20.7 21.7 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.7 18.8 1.0 61.5 57.5 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.3 16.3 0.5 54.2 53.9 13.6 16.1 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.7 20.7 1.1 59.3 57.9 20.1 22.0 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------