***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 23.2 23.0 19.8 1.2 65.7 61.1 20.5 21.6 23.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 22.4 23.3 19.7 1.3 64.9 61.8 20.4 21.8 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.0 23.2 20.1 1.4 64.8 61.5 20.2 21.4 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.5 15.5 17.0 0.7 56.9 56.0 12.6 14.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 21.8 22.2 17.6 0.6 55.4 55.5 20.0 21.1 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 20.6 20.2 15.0 0.0 50.9 50.3 18.0 20.2 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 21.6 23.1 19.6 1.2 65.7 61.0 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.4 15.7 0.1 48.9 51.5 6.9 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.6 18.1 0.8 57.4 57.2 19.4 20.7 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.5 16.7 0.6 53.7 54.9 19.7 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 21.8 22.0 17.4 0.4 53.5 53.8 19.5 21.3 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 20.7 20.1 16.8 0.2 49.7 51.6 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 21.7 21.2 15.8 0.0 49.8 50.5 19.4 21.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 21.9 22.4 18.1 1.1 60.3 59.2 20.1 21.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 21.9 22.3 18.0 0.8 59.1 57.9 19.9 21.5 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.1 16.7 0.3 52.4 52.7 19.7 22.0 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 21.7 22.7 19.4 1.2 64.8 61.2 19.5 21.1 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 20.8 20.8 16.2 0.6 54.5 55.1 18.9 20.1 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.9 23.2 19.9 1.4 65.1 62.1 19.7 21.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 14.7 13.1 0.0 47.4 50.2 13.3 15.2 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.5 19.1 1.0 60.3 58.5 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 21.9 23.3 19.5 1.4 65.5 62.3 20.4 21.3 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.0 23.0 20.0 1.4 64.2 61.7 20.1 21.4 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.8 18.1 1.1 60.3 58.8 19.5 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.0 23.0 17.8 0.9 62.3 58.6 20.1 21.5 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 20.5 20.1 15.7 -0.1 49.8 49.8 18.4 20.1 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 21.6 23.1 18.9 1.1 65.0 60.5 19.7 21.0 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 22.0 22.0 17.3 0.6 56.4 55.6 19.9 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.2 15.1 0.3 51.0 53.0 13.4 15.0 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.1 23.0 19.8 1.3 65.0 61.8 19.5 21.7 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------