***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 21.0 21.5 20.0 2.2 75.7 69.8 18.7 19.4 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 21.3 21.7 20.1 2.4 77.6 70.6 18.4 19.6 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 21.1 21.4 20.2 2.2 75.3 69.2 18.5 19.6 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.8 13.0 16.2 1.2 67.3 62.2 10.8 12.2 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 21.2 20.4 17.5 1.3 66.4 62.9 18.9 19.5 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 18.5 18.6 14.9 0.7 60.4 57.8 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 20.7 21.0 19.9 2.3 76.2 70.1 17.5 19.3 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.1 8.0 15.4 0.9 62.0 59.8 6.4 7.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 20.3 19.6 18.4 1.5 68.2 64.7 18.4 18.9 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 20.5 19.8 16.6 1.3 65.7 62.6 18.3 18.9 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 20.8 20.2 17.5 1.1 63.3 61.2 18.2 19.3 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 20.4 18.9 16.4 0.9 62.8 59.7 17.7 18.5 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 21.0 19.9 16.5 0.9 63.2 59.4 18.5 19.1 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 21.2 21.4 18.8 2.2 73.5 67.8 18.5 19.7 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 20.5 20.8 18.2 1.3 69.5 63.0 18.3 18.9 20.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 21.5 20.2 16.9 1.0 64.0 60.6 19.0 19.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 20.7 21.2 19.8 2.4 77.7 70.2 17.4 19.2 19.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 20.3 19.9 16.1 1.5 67.8 63.5 17.7 18.5 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 20.9 21.3 20.2 2.4 77.4 70.4 18.2 19.4 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 15.9 14.7 13.5 1.1 62.7 61.3 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 20.8 20.5 19.3 1.7 70.3 65.5 18.6 19.5 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 21.5 22.3 19.9 2.5 79.3 71.2 18.1 19.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 21.7 22.0 20.2 2.4 75.8 69.8 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 20.8 20.3 18.5 2.0 72.7 66.8 18.2 19.1 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 21.2 21.2 18.1 1.7 71.2 66.1 18.2 19.4 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 19.1 19.4 15.4 0.8 61.4 58.9 17.8 18.5 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 20.9 21.1 19.2 2.1 74.5 69.1 17.8 18.9 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 20.6 20.4 16.9 1.1 66.4 61.2 17.9 19.2 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 15.6 14.5 15.2 1.4 65.1 62.6 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 21.0 21.3 20.1 2.3 76.6 70.5 17.7 19.4 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------