***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 18.1 18.7 19.0 2.3 81.0 73.6 15.5 16.3 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 17.8 18.2 19.1 2.3 78.7 73.7 14.8 16.6 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 17.9 18.3 19.2 2.4 78.8 73.1 15.3 16.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.7 15.2 1.6 75.9 69.5 8.3 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 17.7 17.8 16.7 1.5 72.5 66.8 15.7 17.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 16.6 16.6 14.7 1.4 71.2 67.0 14.2 15.4 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 17.6 18.0 18.7 2.1 76.2 72.3 14.8 16.2 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 5.7 5.8 14.9 1.5 70.5 65.9 3.0 5.1 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 17.4 17.6 17.9 1.8 75.7 68.6 15.0 16.7 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 17.3 17.7 16.0 1.7 71.4 67.0 15.4 16.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 17.5 17.6 17.1 1.3 70.0 64.8 15.1 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 16.6 17.0 15.8 1.4 71.8 65.8 14.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.7 16.4 1.0 65.7 62.3 15.1 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 18.0 18.5 18.4 2.6 78.8 73.1 15.0 16.6 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 17.5 17.9 17.6 1.4 74.0 68.0 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 18.0 17.9 16.4 1.2 69.3 64.7 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 17.2 17.7 18.6 2.3 77.3 73.1 14.1 15.7 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 17.2 17.6 15.4 1.9 72.7 68.2 14.6 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 17.4 17.9 19.3 2.5 79.3 74.3 14.8 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 12.1 12.1 13.2 1.7 71.1 67.6 8.7 10.7 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 17.8 18.1 18.6 1.8 74.5 69.3 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 17.6 18.1 19.1 2.6 79.8 75.8 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 17.8 18.3 19.3 2.5 79.7 74.4 15.0 16.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 17.6 18.2 18.0 2.3 77.2 71.2 15.1 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 17.5 17.8 17.3 1.6 73.9 68.9 15.7 16.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 17.2 17.1 14.8 1.2 70.9 65.5 14.6 15.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 17.6 17.8 18.1 1.9 76.0 70.9 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 17.5 17.9 16.3 1.5 74.8 68.2 15.4 16.6 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.3 14.7 1.8 72.5 68.0 9.0 10.4 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 17.7 18.4 19.1 2.3 78.2 73.7 14.9 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------