***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 8.9 9.0 9.4 0.5 63.1 59.5 7.7 8.5 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 8.8 8.6 9.1 0.5 64.5 61.3 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 10.5 10.5 9.5 0.6 69.3 63.1 9.2 9.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.7 6.5 0.2 58.4 55.6 3.9 4.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.7 6.9 6.9 0.2 57.9 56.1 5.8 6.7 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.8 4.6 0.2 56.0 54.9 4.8 5.7 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.7 9.1 0.5 64.7 61.2 7.4 8.3 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -0.4 0.6 4.6 0.2 58.3 55.7 -0.2 0.4 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.6 7.6 7.1 0.2 58.7 56.8 6.5 7.2 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.6 7.9 5.5 0.3 60.4 57.1 6.8 7.3 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.3 7.1 6.3 0.1 55.5 54.0 6.3 6.7 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.8 5.4 0.2 56.1 55.2 5.1 5.5 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.5 5.0 0.0 50.0 51.1 6.1 6.5 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 8.6 8.5 7.2 0.6 69.7 63.4 7.6 7.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.4 7.7 0.1 55.3 53.0 7.4 8.2 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.2 8.0 5.8 0.1 52.7 52.9 6.7 8.0 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.6 8.9 0.5 63.5 61.3 8.1 8.3 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 6.0 5.8 4.9 0.4 64.1 59.6 4.9 5.2 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 8.7 8.7 9.2 0.6 67.6 63.1 7.3 8.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 1.8 2.9 2.9 0.3 59.0 57.7 1.8 2.5 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.8 8.4 0.3 60.1 57.8 6.6 7.3 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 8.2 8.2 8.9 0.7 71.3 65.2 7.2 7.6 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 8.4 8.6 9.1 0.7 72.5 65.3 6.9 7.4 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 7.9 8.2 7.1 0.5 69.2 62.7 6.8 7.1 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.9 8.0 0.2 55.2 55.4 7.0 7.6 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.7 4.6 0.1 55.1 53.4 5.7 6.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.5 8.8 0.4 59.2 57.6 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.4 6.8 0.2 57.2 54.6 5.6 6.2 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 5.2 4.9 4.2 0.3 61.2 58.1 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 9.0 8.9 9.3 0.6 67.1 62.2 7.2 8.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------