***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.5 10.7 0.4 57.8 53.3 8.6 9.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.2 10.3 0.3 57.2 52.4 8.5 9.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.2 10.8 0.5 57.4 54.4 10.5 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.8 8.0 0.3 55.5 53.0 5.3 6.2 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.8 8.1 0.3 53.1 53.2 6.8 8.8 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.0 6.1 0.4 56.1 53.9 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.9 10.0 10.4 0.3 57.3 52.5 9.0 9.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.4 2.2 5.9 0.2 52.7 51.7 1.1 1.9 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.0 8.4 0.3 53.8 53.6 8.1 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.2 6.7 0.3 54.0 52.8 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.8 7.5 0.2 53.2 52.5 7.7 8.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.4 6.6 0.2 52.9 51.5 6.0 7.3 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.8 6.1 0.2 54.0 51.5 7.0 8.3 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.8 8.3 0.4 55.5 54.1 9.2 9.6 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 9.2 0.4 56.5 54.9 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.6 6.9 0.2 54.5 51.9 8.0 9.3 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 9.4 10.5 10.1 0.3 56.2 52.1 9.1 10.3 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.2 6.0 0.3 54.2 52.6 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.0 10.4 0.4 57.9 53.5 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.0 3.9 0.2 52.2 51.0 3.1 4.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.2 9.8 0.4 56.2 53.6 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.7 10.0 0.4 58.8 53.9 8.7 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.7 10.3 0.5 58.0 54.8 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.5 8.1 0.4 56.6 54.4 8.5 9.4 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.3 9.2 0.3 55.1 52.2 8.4 8.9 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.8 5.9 0.2 54.9 52.0 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.5 10.0 0.4 57.0 52.9 8.4 9.5 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.3 8.3 0.3 56.4 54.0 7.0 7.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.6 5.4 0.2 52.9 52.1 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.3 10.6 0.4 57.4 53.0 8.7 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------