***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 8.5 10.2 9.7 0.4 57.1 55.2 8.9 9.8 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.7 9.5 0.6 58.7 56.8 7.9 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.3 12.3 9.7 0.5 59.3 56.8 9.8 10.9 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.6 6.7 0.0 50.0 51.0 4.5 5.6 6.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.9 8.1 6.9 0.1 49.3 51.5 6.4 8.1 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.8 5.7 4.8 -0.1 47.3 49.4 5.0 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.0 9.5 0.6 59.1 57.2 7.7 9.1 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -0.2 1.1 4.7 -0.1 46.1 49.6 0.5 1.1 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 6.7 8.5 7.2 0.2 52.1 53.0 7.0 8.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.1 5.5 0.0 49.4 51.3 7.2 8.2 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.4 7.7 6.2 0.0 47.1 50.4 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.5 5.4 -0.1 46.2 49.4 5.1 5.9 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.1 6.9 4.8 -0.2 42.5 47.5 6.1 7.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.6 9.5 7.2 0.3 55.5 53.9 7.6 8.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 7.6 9.0 8.0 0.1 53.9 51.7 8.3 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.9 5.6 -0.1 45.4 48.9 8.2 9.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.0 9.3 0.6 60.9 57.5 9.0 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 6.1 4.8 0.1 49.7 51.8 5.0 6.1 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.9 9.5 0.6 58.7 57.1 8.0 9.0 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.9 2.7 -0.1 45.9 49.7 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 6.5 9.2 8.6 0.3 54.9 53.5 7.3 8.6 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.0 9.2 0.7 61.0 58.5 7.8 8.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.5 9.1 9.3 0.5 58.2 57.3 7.7 8.7 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.9 8.6 7.0 0.3 54.3 54.3 7.3 8.1 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 7.5 9.4 8.0 0.2 53.5 52.2 6.9 9.3 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 6.3 6.9 4.6 -0.2 44.8 48.2 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.9 10.9 9.0 0.4 57.3 54.5 6.8 10.5 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.8 7.3 7.0 0.1 51.4 51.1 5.9 7.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.6 4.3 0.0 49.1 51.4 4.8 5.7 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.6 9.7 0.6 59.0 57.1 7.9 9.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------