***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 8.7 8.5 9.6 1.2 71.3 64.3 6.5 8.1 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 8.7 9.0 9.4 1.3 72.3 65.9 6.2 7.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 10.4 10.5 9.7 1.3 73.0 66.7 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 5.3 5.3 6.6 1.0 66.1 62.5 2.7 4.3 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 6.9 7.3 7.3 1.1 67.9 64.3 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 6.0 5.6 4.9 1.1 68.9 62.9 3.7 4.7 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 8.5 8.3 9.3 1.3 70.8 64.9 6.3 7.7 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 0.7 0.8 5.0 1.2 71.5 66.5 -1.2 0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 7.7 8.0 7.6 1.2 70.9 66.2 5.3 6.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 7.8 7.8 6.0 1.3 71.6 66.9 5.1 6.9 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.6 6.8 1.1 71.3 64.9 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 5.8 5.6 5.9 1.1 69.6 64.5 3.4 4.8 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.2 5.5 0.8 62.6 59.8 4.6 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 8.3 8.6 7.6 1.4 73.5 67.9 6.3 7.5 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 8.1 8.0 7.9 0.9 66.0 62.2 6.0 7.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.2 8.3 6.2 1.0 66.6 61.8 5.5 7.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 8.6 8.8 9.1 1.3 71.7 65.1 6.6 7.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.4 5.3 1.2 68.0 66.1 3.1 4.4 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 8.6 8.9 9.5 1.4 73.8 67.3 6.0 7.5 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 2.8 2.6 3.5 1.2 68.9 65.4 0.9 2.0 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.8 8.0 8.8 1.1 69.6 64.9 5.3 6.6 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 7.8 8.1 9.3 1.5 75.8 68.8 5.8 6.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 8.1 8.6 9.4 1.5 75.7 69.2 5.6 6.9 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.5 7.4 1.3 71.7 67.6 5.2 6.4 7.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.2 8.3 1.0 66.6 62.3 4.9 7.1 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.7 6.4 5.0 0.9 65.0 60.7 4.7 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 8.5 8.3 9.0 1.1 67.3 62.4 5.6 7.4 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.0 7.0 0.9 66.1 61.8 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.1 4.7 1.2 70.2 66.9 3.0 4.5 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 8.8 9.2 9.6 1.3 73.2 66.2 6.6 7.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------