***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.9 7.5 -0.2 52.0 47.3 5.6 6.6 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.5 7.2 -0.2 52.6 47.2 4.3 5.5 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.7 7.8 0.0 57.5 51.4 6.4 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 0.4 2.0 4.7 -0.4 49.4 45.6 1.2 2.0 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.4 4.6 5.4 -0.5 42.9 42.3 3.6 5.2 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.6 4.1 2.6 -0.6 41.2 40.6 3.4 4.5 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.5 7.3 -0.1 52.6 48.1 4.5 6.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -4.0 -2.1 2.7 -0.6 41.3 41.4 -2.3 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 3.8 4.3 5.3 -0.7 32.8 37.5 4.3 6.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.8 5.1 3.7 -0.5 39.8 41.0 4.3 6.2 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.7 4.6 4.6 -0.8 34.6 37.0 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 2.6 4.2 3.8 -0.5 44.1 42.8 3.5 4.6 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 2.8 4.5 3.7 -0.8 33.5 37.1 4.4 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.5 5.9 0.2 58.6 53.6 4.1 6.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 4.5 5.7 5.7 -1.0 32.3 34.1 5.8 6.7 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 3.8 5.8 4.4 -0.7 38.0 39.4 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.6 6.9 -0.2 53.2 47.2 5.1 6.6 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.3 3.6 -0.1 53.9 49.5 2.3 4.0 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.5 7.3 0.0 55.5 49.5 4.2 6.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 1.6 1.2 1.7 -0.1 50.1 49.5 0.3 1.2 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.9 6.6 -0.5 42.8 42.1 4.2 6.2 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.1 6.1 7.3 0.1 56.7 50.9 4.1 5.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.5 7.3 0.1 59.9 53.0 4.1 4.9 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.0 5.8 0.1 56.6 52.0 4.2 5.8 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.3 5.8 6.4 -0.6 46.1 41.7 4.4 6.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.3 4.7 3.1 -0.5 42.7 42.9 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.4 6.0 7.0 -0.4 49.7 45.0 4.9 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.4 4.8 5.0 -0.6 43.0 41.6 3.9 5.4 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.7 2.1 2.5 -0.3 46.5 45.8 0.8 2.2 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.3 7.6 -0.1 54.8 49.3 4.5 6.2 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------