***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 31.0 43.3 46.6 86.3 45.8 42.0 32.8 43.6 49.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 26.6 42.9 50.2 93.3 51.1 44.5 26.8 41.4 52.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 39.8 47.2 47.0 87.2 45.6 40.9 40.6 50.1 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 50.6 59.9 49.0 75.6 33.1 34.2 59.9 64.4 72.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 35.5 43.1 48.8 76.8 32.8 34.4 43.4 51.0 58.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 37.2 42.6 63.3 83.9 37.1 38.2 40.5 49.5 61.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 28.4 45.0 51.7 94.1 53.7 45.4 27.6 42.9 53.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 74.9 78.9 56.2 82.4 38.1 38.7 77.4 89.6 102.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 38.0 42.5 49.9 80.7 38.9 37.7 40.3 48.8 65.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 42.4 51.6 58.4 83.2 40.2 39.2 45.5 56.1 67.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 40.8 40.5 47.0 79.2 36.9 37.1 39.2 50.2 68.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 44.8 46.9 46.1 81.8 37.3 39.1 46.5 51.6 62.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 61.1 44.9 52.9 82.6 35.0 38.5 43.7 56.9 62.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 42.8 49.9 61.1 88.6 44.1 40.5 46.2 56.8 75.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 37.5 37.1 47.0 74.8 37.6 33.7 36.3 46.3 56.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 38.9 38.8 47.6 77.8 33.7 35.8 38.3 49.8 68.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 33.6 46.7 51.0 93.7 52.0 46.3 32.9 45.1 57.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 50.2 48.0 67.3 87.8 41.2 41.4 46.6 67.7 79.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 34.8 49.7 48.6 91.2 47.9 43.0 37.7 50.8 57.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 43.0 46.2 70.2 83.7 33.3 37.1 46.2 54.0 61.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 36.9 45.3 45.5 82.3 41.3 38.9 42.9 47.2 58.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 31.7 39.8 49.9 91.8 47.5 44.9 38.1 40.0 50.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 31.1 42.5 48.5 89.0 47.8 41.6 32.5 43.5 54.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 48.4 62.9 59.3 88.6 44.1 41.7 39.7 68.3 75.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 37.1 44.2 54.3 80.0 38.7 36.9 36.2 53.1 62.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 38.3 47.0 48.4 83.5 39.7 40.3 44.9 50.9 53.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 31.4 39.4 54.2 85.3 44.0 40.8 36.2 40.6 60.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 31.7 37.8 46.5 73.5 32.8 33.1 37.9 43.8 54.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 57.3 63.5 69.1 87.7 40.3 40.9 59.8 76.8 105.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 27.4 42.4 49.2 91.7 50.6 43.5 30.9 42.0 54.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------