***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 18.8 22.5 15.8 149.3 79.1 58.6 7.2 11.8 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 14.9 19.4 16.9 152.0 79.5 61.4 4.1 8.9 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 16.5 19.8 16.2 155.5 80.5 60.2 5.3 11.8 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.4 24.6 16.3 127.4 71.0 56.1 9.6 20.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.3 16.3 16.0 127.4 69.0 55.8 5.5 7.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.1 16.7 20.4 122.6 62.2 56.8 8.1 11.0 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.9 21.8 16.8 146.7 78.4 59.9 4.5 10.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 30.2 33.2 18.8 124.1 66.8 56.5 16.7 25.9 32.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.2 14.9 16.3 128.7 67.1 56.2 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.9 17.4 19.5 125.0 68.8 56.4 9.7 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.2 17.1 15.7 129.4 69.1 56.1 6.4 9.8 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.7 15.9 15.4 135.8 67.9 57.5 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.7 15.8 18.0 138.5 67.9 58.6 8.7 11.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.8 25.8 21.7 142.0 77.1 59.3 7.5 15.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.9 14.5 15.7 130.5 72.8 56.0 5.5 8.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.1 15.5 16.2 130.9 70.5 56.9 7.3 11.6 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.0 31.3 16.5 143.1 75.6 61.0 5.0 11.5 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.9 19.8 23.2 135.9 73.0 59.0 6.4 10.0 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 23.8 27.7 16.9 155.5 80.1 62.1 9.7 17.2 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.4 20.8 23.8 128.1 69.2 57.8 9.1 13.6 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.7 19.9 15.0 142.6 71.4 57.4 6.5 10.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 17.3 21.6 16.9 144.9 77.1 62.0 5.9 9.8 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 22.8 28.4 17.5 155.0 80.6 61.3 6.9 13.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.4 30.1 20.8 146.5 78.4 59.9 5.7 11.4 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.9 23.9 18.4 137.7 74.8 58.6 7.2 11.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.7 19.4 15.8 142.3 72.4 60.2 8.1 12.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.4 22.5 18.3 143.1 77.8 58.9 7.2 12.3 18.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.5 17.3 15.3 122.1 69.6 55.0 7.4 10.6 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.8 33.5 23.8 136.8 74.1 59.7 9.8 15.9 25.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 18.7 24.2 16.7 154.0 80.0 60.6 2.4 10.1 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------