***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.5 12.4 109.6 65.4 51.7 2.2 3.6 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.4 6.2 14.5 121.4 68.5 54.5 1.8 2.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.9 12.2 103.7 63.4 52.6 2.2 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.3 11.7 14.2 101.7 66.4 50.5 6.2 7.9 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.6 7.0 13.3 98.8 65.2 51.2 3.0 4.8 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.9 18.5 106.7 65.1 52.0 3.8 8.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.8 9.0 15.6 128.9 70.8 55.9 1.2 4.0 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.6 16.0 15.4 97.3 60.7 50.2 7.9 9.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.2 7.0 13.4 99.8 63.9 51.9 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.6 16.3 101.1 63.1 52.0 2.9 5.9 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.2 6.2 13.0 99.0 61.8 51.4 1.2 4.3 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.9 9.1 11.9 96.3 60.0 50.1 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.6 14.5 103.2 59.1 51.8 3.9 6.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.6 15.4 97.8 59.9 51.0 5.4 8.0 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.6 15.0 108.8 64.7 50.2 2.8 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.6 13.0 96.7 59.0 50.4 2.0 4.2 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.4 5.3 14.8 123.6 69.5 55.0 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.4 18.0 97.9 58.7 50.4 2.9 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.5 13.2 112.8 66.9 53.5 1.9 4.3 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.0 19.1 92.4 56.4 47.8 4.0 7.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.9 11.9 103.4 65.4 52.3 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.6 6.0 13.1 109.9 63.3 53.2 0.8 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.7 8.7 12.4 105.0 65.9 52.5 2.8 5.6 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.3 15.1 97.5 59.2 50.6 3.2 5.8 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.4 14.6 101.6 62.1 50.7 1.9 5.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.7 7.4 12.6 100.4 59.3 50.6 2.4 3.8 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.9 6.0 14.6 106.6 63.1 51.5 2.4 3.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.7 5.9 13.9 100.7 62.9 50.2 2.5 3.7 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.2 15.6 18.4 95.8 57.6 49.7 3.3 11.3 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.8 6.7 13.9 117.0 68.0 53.9 0.6 3.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------