***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 7.0 8.2 10.1 67.8 41.3 39.9 5.5 14.1 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.5 10.2 70.3 48.0 40.4 3.2 7.2 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.4 8.9 10.0 69.4 45.7 38.7 5.9 9.4 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.6 10.6 11.6 63.7 43.5 39.4 8.1 11.1 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.3 5.6 11.2 64.8 44.2 38.2 4.8 8.6 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 4.6 7.9 15.5 73.3 44.1 38.2 3.8 9.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.2 10.2 68.4 46.4 40.4 3.9 6.7 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.1 12.6 12.2 71.7 43.0 39.5 10.0 14.4 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.1 8.5 11.2 67.0 45.9 38.4 5.5 9.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.1 8.5 12.4 69.2 44.3 38.8 6.1 10.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.4 8.3 10.4 69.5 47.9 39.9 5.3 8.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.1 9.0 10.7 74.3 47.7 40.5 7.3 9.4 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.7 8.0 12.6 73.4 43.8 39.7 4.3 9.0 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.9 9.2 13.0 71.9 50.6 40.4 6.0 9.1 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.4 10.9 62.1 41.3 37.1 2.5 6.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.4 8.1 11.5 71.1 49.5 40.4 4.5 8.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.0 10.6 71.3 46.2 41.1 4.4 6.4 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.7 11.9 14.1 70.7 41.5 38.2 6.8 13.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.5 6.7 10.1 70.8 48.7 39.5 3.0 6.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.5 5.1 15.9 72.4 35.7 37.4 4.7 10.4 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.8 6.9 10.3 67.9 43.3 38.8 3.5 7.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.4 7.5 10.9 73.3 48.5 42.0 4.0 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.3 5.9 10.2 70.4 49.8 38.5 2.7 6.0 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.1 8.3 12.5 71.2 47.2 38.8 4.8 9.2 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 4.7 6.2 12.3 65.0 38.1 36.7 5.2 8.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 3.2 7.3 11.8 75.5 47.4 39.1 2.4 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.2 7.5 11.8 67.0 41.6 38.6 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.6 7.2 11.2 64.1 47.2 39.5 4.6 7.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 9.9 8.6 14.8 71.3 38.7 38.2 7.7 15.2 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.2 7.4 10.1 70.1 48.6 40.8 4.1 8.4 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------