***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 3.9 4.2 8.2 48.1 21.9 23.6 7.5 10.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 4.7 5.3 8.6 53.2 28.8 29.0 5.6 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 7.3 8.4 8.5 49.4 22.2 25.2 11.3 13.9 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 8.3 7.2 7.1 35.2 14.4 16.5 14.2 19.6 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 5.4 4.2 8.2 40.9 17.0 18.1 10.9 14.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 5.5 4.8 8.9 43.9 18.7 20.3 7.4 10.8 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 3.6 3.4 9.1 55.2 26.0 28.6 4.9 10.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 15.9 13.5 9.8 48.6 18.7 22.8 19.4 25.9 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 5.4 2.9 9.1 47.5 18.0 22.5 8.8 14.8 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 8.6 4.8 10.3 50.1 18.8 23.5 12.2 18.0 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 4.3 1.8 7.9 41.5 17.3 19.1 10.5 16.9 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 6.2 5.4 8.1 44.4 19.6 21.5 8.2 13.8 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 6.8 4.2 7.8 39.4 18.1 18.5 12.3 19.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 9.6 11.8 11.0 55.5 27.0 29.3 14.2 18.1 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 4.9 1.9 5.5 28.0 10.9 13.6 9.0 14.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 4.1 3.0 7.0 36.2 16.3 16.9 9.4 15.1 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 4.1 4.3 9.1 56.8 30.7 31.2 5.3 10.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 8.5 5.7 11.9 56.5 26.1 27.9 10.3 14.6 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 4.5 5.8 8.3 51.0 29.2 28.5 6.4 10.6 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 5.3 4.8 11.4 50.4 22.1 22.9 8.7 10.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 8.1 7.1 8.4 46.3 18.3 22.5 9.4 15.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 4.3 6.1 9.0 56.8 30.1 31.5 6.8 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 5.6 6.6 8.5 49.9 28.3 28.3 7.8 12.1 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 8.4 8.4 10.9 55.6 24.5 28.0 9.7 14.6 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 92 8 0 100 5.1 4.3 9.1 42.8 16.2 18.0 7.8 16.3 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 5.4 3.3 8.2 43.9 22.2 22.5 4.9 13.0 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 5.2 4.8 9.5 48.8 20.6 22.5 8.8 13.6 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 4.1 2.2 6.1 31.5 12.2 15.1 6.9 11.4 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 14.1 11.7 12.2 56.6 27.2 27.7 13.1 20.0 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 3.9 4.1 8.5 51.3 25.4 27.2 5.0 11.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------