***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 18.7 19.5 19.0 0.3 54.1 54.7 19.1 19.5 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 18.4 19.8 18.9 0.3 54.4 54.7 18.9 19.6 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 18.6 19.7 19.1 0.4 53.1 55.5 19.0 19.6 20.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.9 17.4 0.5 59.3 58.1 11.7 12.4 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 20.0 19.9 17.7 0.4 57.7 56.1 19.3 19.7 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 18.7 18.6 16.0 0.5 58.3 56.6 17.9 18.4 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 18.3 19.5 18.8 0.2 53.3 53.0 18.4 19.3 20.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.3 16.2 0.4 55.3 55.2 6.6 7.2 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 18.4 19.5 18.2 0.4 57.6 55.6 18.7 19.1 20.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 19.4 19.4 17.0 0.4 54.9 55.3 18.6 19.0 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.7 17.4 0.4 57.0 55.6 18.7 19.4 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 18.8 18.6 17.0 0.4 56.8 55.0 17.7 18.4 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 19.8 19.7 16.6 0.3 55.0 54.5 18.6 19.4 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 18.3 19.6 17.9 0.3 50.5 55.4 18.9 19.6 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 19.8 20.3 18.0 0.6 62.4 59.7 19.1 19.4 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 20.3 20.2 17.1 0.4 56.6 55.4 19.3 20.0 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 18.1 19.2 18.6 0.2 52.4 53.0 18.2 19.1 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 17.9 18.8 16.4 0.4 53.9 55.5 18.0 18.6 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 18.2 19.3 19.0 0.4 54.3 55.4 18.4 19.3 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.9 14.2 0.4 54.5 55.0 13.3 13.8 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 18.4 19.7 18.8 0.4 55.6 55.5 19.0 19.4 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 18.4 19.5 18.6 0.3 52.6 53.8 18.8 19.4 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 18.5 20.0 18.9 0.4 53.1 55.5 18.8 19.9 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 18.2 19.3 17.9 0.4 52.0 55.7 18.7 19.3 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 18.5 19.9 17.7 0.4 55.8 55.4 18.8 19.5 20.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 19.1 18.8 16.2 0.4 55.5 55.4 18.3 18.7 19.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 18.5 19.6 18.3 0.3 53.5 53.9 18.5 19.5 20.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 19.9 20.0 17.8 0.6 60.1 58.6 19.0 19.5 20.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.9 15.4 0.4 53.5 55.2 13.0 13.9 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 18.3 19.5 19.1 0.3 54.3 55.2 18.6 19.4 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------