***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 20.2 20.3 20.0 -1.1 34.8 40.3 20.3 21.8 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.9 20.6 19.9 -1.0 36.0 41.2 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.8 20.6 20.0 -1.2 36.9 40.4 20.4 22.3 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 13.3 13.8 18.4 -1.1 36.5 40.5 13.6 14.8 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.0 18.4 -1.2 36.0 40.0 20.8 21.7 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 18.9 19.6 16.7 -1.1 38.3 41.4 19.2 20.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.3 20.2 19.9 -1.0 37.0 41.3 20.1 21.7 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.4 8.7 16.9 -1.3 37.0 39.6 8.1 9.8 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 21.7 20.4 18.7 -1.3 35.4 39.7 20.0 21.2 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 22.0 20.2 17.5 -1.3 36.8 39.7 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.1 20.8 17.9 -1.3 35.5 39.5 20.4 21.6 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 21.1 19.5 17.7 -1.3 35.4 39.0 19.3 20.4 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 19.9 20.1 17.3 -1.3 35.3 39.5 20.1 21.4 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 20.1 20.4 18.3 -1.4 33.4 39.0 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 20.6 21.1 18.7 -1.0 37.5 40.4 20.9 21.7 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 20.6 21.1 17.7 -1.3 36.8 39.6 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.9 19.8 19.6 -1.0 37.4 41.2 19.8 21.6 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.2 19.3 16.9 -1.3 36.7 39.9 19.2 20.6 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 22.4 19.8 19.9 -1.1 35.5 40.8 19.5 21.9 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.1 14.8 -1.3 40.1 40.4 14.3 15.7 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 20.2 20.1 19.5 -1.2 34.8 40.0 20.1 21.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 20.4 20.4 19.5 -1.1 36.8 40.4 20.3 22.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 20.4 20.5 19.7 -1.2 34.4 39.8 20.5 22.3 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 19.9 20.3 18.4 -1.3 35.8 39.6 20.3 21.2 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 20.5 20.6 18.5 -1.1 35.8 40.2 20.3 21.7 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 19.2 19.6 17.1 -1.2 35.4 40.2 19.4 20.7 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 20.2 20.7 19.2 -1.1 35.8 40.2 20.7 21.7 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.1 18.6 -1.1 36.7 40.4 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 14.4 14.3 15.9 -1.3 38.1 40.1 13.6 16.1 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.6 20.2 20.0 -1.1 36.8 41.0 20.1 22.0 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------