***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.8 20.3 0.8 55.1 56.4 20.5 21.6 23.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.0 20.1 0.6 51.8 54.6 20.4 21.8 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 21.9 21.7 20.4 0.7 55.3 56.0 20.2 21.4 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.5 15.8 18.9 1.1 62.2 59.5 12.6 14.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 21.7 23.1 19.1 1.0 62.4 58.7 20.0 21.1 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 21.9 21.3 17.8 1.5 69.5 63.4 18.0 20.2 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.2 20.0 0.6 52.2 54.4 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.0 17.9 1.1 63.0 59.4 6.9 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.9 19.5 0.9 59.4 57.5 19.4 20.7 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.4 21.8 18.5 1.0 61.1 58.5 19.7 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 21.9 22.3 18.8 1.1 64.6 59.7 19.5 21.3 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 20.8 21.3 18.7 1.1 64.2 60.1 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 22.9 22.3 18.3 1.3 66.4 61.6 19.4 21.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 21.8 21.4 19.0 0.5 52.1 53.0 20.1 21.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 21.9 22.5 19.1 1.1 60.8 60.2 19.9 21.5 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 23.4 23.0 18.7 1.2 65.6 61.1 19.7 22.0 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.1 19.7 0.4 50.1 52.9 19.5 21.1 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 20.8 21.3 17.9 0.9 59.9 57.4 18.9 20.1 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 21.9 21.8 20.2 0.6 52.6 54.6 19.7 21.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.2 15.9 1.0 60.1 58.0 13.3 15.2 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 21.9 22.2 20.0 0.8 56.9 56.8 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.3 19.7 0.4 49.5 52.1 20.4 21.3 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.0 21.7 20.1 0.5 52.8 54.0 20.1 21.4 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 21.5 21.6 19.1 0.7 57.8 55.7 19.5 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.6 19.0 0.9 59.2 57.3 20.1 21.5 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 21.5 21.6 18.1 1.3 66.9 61.9 18.4 20.1 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.6 19.6 0.8 55.5 56.5 19.7 21.0 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.2 19.2 1.1 62.1 60.3 19.9 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.4 17.0 0.9 60.3 56.8 13.4 15.0 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.1 21.7 20.3 0.6 52.9 55.5 19.5 21.7 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------