***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 18.0 19.6 18.8 0.8 58.1 57.3 18.7 19.4 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 17.9 20.1 18.6 0.7 59.4 57.5 18.4 19.6 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 17.8 20.1 19.0 0.9 60.8 58.8 18.5 19.6 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.8 17.4 1.0 61.7 58.5 10.8 12.2 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 18.2 20.2 17.7 1.0 60.4 59.0 18.9 19.5 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 16.6 18.8 16.0 1.2 63.0 60.4 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 19.8 19.4 18.5 0.6 57.2 56.0 17.5 19.3 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 9.2 8.0 16.3 1.1 63.2 60.3 6.4 7.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 17.6 19.4 18.1 1.1 60.8 59.3 18.4 18.9 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 20.5 19.6 17.0 1.1 62.9 60.1 18.3 18.9 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 18.3 20.1 17.2 1.0 61.1 59.4 18.2 19.3 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 16.7 18.7 17.0 1.0 62.1 60.0 17.7 18.5 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 19.8 19.5 16.5 1.0 61.2 59.7 18.5 19.1 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 21.2 19.8 17.9 1.0 62.1 60.1 18.5 19.7 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 17.3 20.1 17.6 1.0 63.7 58.5 18.3 18.9 20.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 20.1 20.1 17.0 1.0 61.4 59.4 19.0 19.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 17.5 19.3 18.3 0.5 56.3 56.0 17.4 19.2 19.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 20.3 19.2 16.5 1.2 65.0 60.5 17.7 18.5 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 20.7 19.8 18.8 0.8 60.3 58.6 18.2 19.4 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 16.0 14.7 14.2 1.0 64.8 59.9 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 17.8 20.0 18.7 1.0 60.2 58.7 18.6 19.5 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 18.0 20.1 18.4 0.7 59.5 57.5 18.1 19.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 21.5 20.2 18.8 0.9 60.6 59.6 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 20.8 19.7 17.9 1.1 62.7 60.2 18.2 19.1 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 17.6 19.5 17.5 0.8 58.3 57.3 18.2 19.4 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 20.3 19.6 16.2 1.0 62.7 60.2 17.8 18.5 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 17.4 19.3 18.0 0.7 57.3 56.7 17.8 18.9 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 17.5 20.3 17.6 1.1 64.0 58.9 17.9 19.2 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 15.7 14.5 15.5 1.1 65.8 60.6 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 17.7 20.1 18.8 0.7 60.2 57.7 17.7 19.4 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------