***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.5 17.1 0.9 67.4 60.1 15.5 16.3 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 16.9 17.5 17.1 1.1 65.7 61.1 14.8 16.6 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.6 17.8 17.2 1.0 67.9 60.6 15.3 16.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.5 10.4 15.1 1.1 70.3 62.2 8.3 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 17.2 17.7 15.7 0.9 63.5 58.2 15.7 17.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.1 13.3 0.4 56.5 52.0 14.2 15.4 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.5 17.3 16.9 0.9 63.9 58.6 14.8 16.2 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.2 13.8 0.7 57.4 55.8 3.0 5.1 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 16.9 17.3 16.6 1.0 66.2 59.2 15.0 16.7 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 16.6 17.2 14.9 0.8 59.7 56.8 15.4 16.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 17.0 17.2 15.4 0.8 58.3 56.5 15.1 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.5 14.6 0.7 57.7 55.2 14.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.0 14.4 0.4 54.6 50.7 15.1 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 17.7 17.3 16.4 1.2 69.0 62.7 15.0 16.6 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.5 17.8 16.7 1.3 72.2 65.6 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 17.2 17.3 15.0 0.6 57.9 54.1 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.1 17.0 16.8 1.0 64.7 60.3 14.1 15.7 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 16.1 16.9 14.2 0.9 60.6 57.2 14.6 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.2 17.5 17.2 1.1 67.9 62.4 14.8 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 10.9 11.6 11.8 0.6 57.0 55.1 8.7 10.7 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.8 17.2 1.0 67.5 59.6 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 17.2 17.5 16.9 1.1 68.2 63.0 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 17.5 17.7 17.2 1.2 70.4 63.1 15.0 16.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.3 17.3 16.1 1.1 65.7 59.9 15.1 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.7 17.5 15.9 0.9 67.4 59.3 15.7 16.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.9 13.5 0.3 52.2 51.1 14.6 15.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.7 17.6 16.4 0.8 66.2 58.3 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 17.4 17.3 15.8 1.1 68.2 62.6 15.4 16.6 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 10.7 11.8 13.3 0.8 60.8 56.6 9.0 10.4 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.5 17.5 17.2 1.0 66.3 61.0 14.9 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------