***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 7.8 7.8 8.4 -0.3 38.1 42.7 7.7 8.5 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 6.7 7.8 8.5 0.0 46.5 48.3 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.5 8.2 -0.2 42.3 44.8 9.2 9.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.3 6.2 -0.1 42.2 47.0 3.9 4.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.6 6.1 6.2 -0.1 42.5 47.3 5.8 6.7 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.6 4.6 0.1 46.3 50.5 4.8 5.7 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.1 8.0 8.5 -0.1 44.1 47.9 7.4 8.3 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -0.4 0.0 4.4 -0.2 38.9 43.8 -0.2 0.4 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.0 6.6 -0.1 43.2 45.3 6.5 7.2 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.0 5.0 -0.2 40.0 44.1 6.8 7.3 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.3 6.6 5.7 -0.1 38.4 45.6 6.3 6.7 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.2 5.2 -0.2 39.9 44.4 5.1 5.5 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.0 6.3 5.0 0.0 45.0 49.5 6.1 6.5 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.0 7.7 6.6 -0.2 40.0 44.0 7.6 7.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.0 6.9 0.0 45.3 48.0 7.4 8.2 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 7.1 7.6 5.5 0.0 42.4 48.6 6.7 8.0 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 7.2 8.2 8.3 0.0 46.3 48.7 8.1 8.3 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 4.9 4.3 -0.2 38.8 43.5 4.9 5.2 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 7.1 8.0 8.4 -0.1 45.4 47.6 7.3 8.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.8 2.1 2.6 -0.1 39.2 45.0 1.8 2.5 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.0 7.7 -0.2 42.7 44.9 6.6 7.3 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 6.6 7.5 8.2 0.0 45.8 48.9 7.2 7.6 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 6.9 7.1 8.0 -0.1 42.3 45.8 6.9 7.4 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.6 6.9 6.3 -0.2 41.1 44.2 6.8 7.1 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 6.6 7.3 7.0 -0.2 39.6 44.3 7.0 7.6 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 6.0 6.7 5.2 0.1 50.6 51.6 5.7 6.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.2 7.4 7.7 -0.2 39.4 43.7 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.6 6.2 6.5 0.0 46.9 49.3 5.6 6.2 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.1 3.8 -0.1 37.5 44.0 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.0 8.5 -0.1 44.4 47.1 7.2 8.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------