***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 8.5 9.0 10.1 -0.6 41.0 42.8 8.6 9.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 8.8 8.9 10.0 -0.6 41.5 43.0 8.5 9.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.8 9.8 -0.6 39.7 42.3 10.5 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.0 6.0 7.9 -0.5 39.4 43.0 5.3 6.2 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 6.8 7.0 7.7 -0.6 35.3 42.4 6.8 8.8 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 5.9 7.0 6.1 -0.4 43.7 44.6 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.3 10.0 -0.6 41.0 43.4 9.0 9.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.2 6.0 -0.5 36.4 43.0 1.1 1.9 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.8 8.2 8.1 -0.6 35.1 42.3 8.1 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 8.2 8.2 6.6 -0.5 35.7 42.8 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 7.6 7.8 7.3 -0.5 36.7 42.7 7.7 8.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.3 6.1 6.9 -0.5 36.9 42.6 6.0 7.3 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.6 6.4 -0.5 39.6 42.7 7.0 8.3 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.3 8.0 -0.6 38.2 40.9 9.2 9.6 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 8.8 9.4 8.4 -0.4 39.1 44.3 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.4 7.0 -0.5 39.2 42.7 8.0 9.3 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 9.4 9.6 9.8 -0.6 41.0 43.3 9.1 10.3 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.5 6.5 6.0 -0.5 37.4 42.7 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.4 9.9 -0.6 40.8 42.6 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.0 3.3 4.3 -0.6 35.7 42.9 3.1 4.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.8 8.2 9.2 -0.6 38.2 42.2 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 8.7 8.8 9.7 -0.6 39.2 42.4 8.7 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.0 9.5 -0.6 38.9 42.1 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.6 7.8 -0.6 38.3 41.8 8.5 9.4 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 8.1 8.5 8.5 -0.5 40.0 42.9 8.4 8.9 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 6.8 7.3 6.6 -0.6 36.3 41.0 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 8.2 8.7 9.3 -0.6 40.8 42.9 8.4 9.5 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 6.4 7.3 8.1 -0.4 40.0 43.7 7.0 7.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 5.9 5.4 -0.5 37.5 43.1 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 8.7 9.0 10.1 -0.6 41.3 42.7 8.7 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------