***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 6.3 7.9 7.9 0.0 48.7 50.0 6.5 8.1 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.3 7.9 0.0 48.8 50.6 6.2 7.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.2 7.7 0.0 47.1 50.6 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.6 5.5 0.0 44.7 50.3 2.7 4.3 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.1 5.1 5.6 0.0 45.9 51.3 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.7 4.0 0.0 49.3 52.8 3.7 4.7 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.6 7.9 0.0 47.7 50.0 6.3 7.7 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.1 -0.3 3.9 -0.1 43.3 49.8 -1.2 0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.9 6.3 6.1 0.2 49.7 53.1 5.3 6.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.5 6.3 4.5 0.0 45.1 50.8 5.1 6.9 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.7 5.0 -0.1 42.3 49.7 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.5 4.7 -0.1 45.7 50.5 3.4 4.8 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.7 4.4 0.1 51.9 53.5 4.6 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.3 6.1 0.0 47.2 50.4 6.3 7.5 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 6.0 7.1 6.1 0.0 46.9 52.0 6.0 7.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.6 6.9 4.9 0.0 46.3 51.4 5.5 7.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.3 7.7 -0.1 48.0 49.7 6.6 7.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.3 3.9 -0.1 46.4 50.1 3.1 4.4 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.4 7.8 0.0 48.5 51.0 6.0 7.5 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.7 2.3 0.0 45.6 50.9 0.9 2.0 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.9 6.6 7.1 0.1 50.0 51.7 5.3 6.6 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.8 7.7 0.0 48.3 51.4 5.8 6.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.7 7.5 0.0 47.8 51.1 5.6 6.9 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.1 5.8 -0.1 46.9 49.8 5.2 6.4 7.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.3 6.5 6.3 -0.1 46.0 49.2 4.9 7.1 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.9 4.9 0.3 57.7 56.5 4.7 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 5.2 7.3 7.2 -0.1 47.5 49.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.1 4.8 5.9 0.1 46.7 52.4 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.3 3.3 -0.1 46.4 49.6 3.0 4.5 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.6 8.0 0.0 48.0 50.7 6.6 7.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------