***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.7 5.2 5.7 -1.0 31.8 31.1 5.6 6.6 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.0 6.3 -0.1 39.3 43.5 4.3 5.5 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.2 6.9 5.8 -0.6 34.7 36.4 6.4 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 0.0 1.1 3.7 -0.5 32.2 36.1 1.2 2.0 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.1 4.1 -0.5 35.8 36.6 3.6 5.2 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.5 3.4 2.1 -0.5 31.3 35.8 3.4 4.5 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.2 6.3 -0.2 39.2 42.3 4.5 6.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 -4.6 -2.4 1.6 -1.0 28.8 29.7 -2.3 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.9 3.9 4.2 -0.9 28.5 30.2 4.3 6.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 3.4 4.1 2.4 -1.0 28.9 29.8 4.3 6.2 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.6 4.0 3.4 -0.7 30.6 33.2 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 2.0 2.6 2.3 -0.9 27.7 29.1 3.5 4.6 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.2 4.0 2.7 -0.5 30.2 34.4 4.4 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.7 4.3 4.5 -0.4 35.2 38.8 4.1 6.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 4.5 5.6 5.0 -0.6 30.3 34.2 5.8 6.7 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.8 5.1 3.3 -0.5 30.9 35.6 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.9 5.9 6.2 0.0 41.0 44.8 5.1 6.6 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 2.1 2.2 1.7 -0.8 28.9 31.9 2.3 4.0 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.5 4.6 6.2 -0.2 38.3 42.1 4.2 6.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 -1.1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 28.6 30.5 0.3 1.2 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.2 4.2 5.4 -0.8 32.5 33.0 4.2 6.2 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.5 6.2 0.0 41.4 45.7 4.1 5.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.7 4.3 5.7 -0.4 36.7 39.6 4.1 4.9 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.0 4.2 4.1 -0.5 33.8 37.5 4.2 5.8 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.4 4.9 -0.7 31.2 34.7 4.4 6.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.4 4.3 2.7 -0.2 36.2 40.1 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.3 4.8 5.3 -0.9 31.7 33.0 4.9 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.2 3.8 4.4 -0.4 32.0 37.2 3.9 5.4 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 0.2 0.3 1.2 -0.7 30.2 33.0 0.8 2.2 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.8 4.7 6.3 -0.3 35.8 40.6 4.5 6.2 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------