***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 54.4 47.4 58.0 89.1 45.7 45.1 41.1 47.8 52.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 48.1 41.4 53.9 92.1 46.8 47.2 29.0 42.9 51.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 55.3 50.1 57.9 91.0 49.3 47.3 43.7 50.7 61.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 69.1 64.4 69.9 91.6 47.5 46.7 58.7 65.2 77.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 55.3 51.5 65.8 92.6 50.6 47.4 43.8 51.4 59.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 58.5 51.7 76.9 97.2 50.5 49.0 44.1 51.3 61.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 27.9 42.9 54.5 92.8 48.0 46.5 28.1 43.6 56.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 95.4 88.7 73.7 95.5 49.1 48.3 81.4 89.6 106.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 56.4 51.8 66.2 92.5 49.7 47.1 42.9 51.9 63.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 64.1 58.5 76.9 95.4 50.4 48.8 46.6 58.1 67.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 54.9 49.7 65.8 95.9 51.0 48.9 43.2 49.5 70.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 55.4 51.9 63.8 95.4 50.2 48.2 48.4 51.8 61.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 61.5 58.0 70.2 95.4 49.5 48.2 49.4 58.3 63.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 50.5 57.6 76.1 90.7 45.0 46.1 46.1 63.8 78.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 52.3 48.0 65.2 93.4 49.8 48.0 38.6 48.0 59.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 56.2 51.6 67.5 95.8 50.0 48.7 42.0 51.6 68.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 51.1 44.6 54.0 95.2 50.1 47.9 34.4 44.6 59.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 72.1 67.5 79.8 93.9 50.2 48.5 46.6 67.3 83.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 55.3 50.1 54.9 91.6 45.7 47.0 36.1 52.1 61.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 60.9 55.1 77.8 91.3 45.3 45.5 45.9 56.6 62.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 50.8 46.5 60.8 89.8 46.7 45.6 42.9 47.8 57.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 31.9 42.5 57.2 96.4 50.6 49.3 39.2 42.3 49.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 54.3 41.0 56.4 89.3 44.5 45.0 34.0 48.5 55.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 68.7 63.3 71.6 92.4 49.4 47.6 50.4 63.4 77.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 43.7 52.6 67.0 90.3 43.2 45.5 42.2 55.1 64.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 53.2 49.4 62.6 91.1 44.4 44.5 44.1 50.8 55.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 53.2 40.2 63.8 90.8 44.7 45.8 36.3 46.9 63.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 54.4 48.9 68.4 92.4 48.8 47.2 37.7 49.3 61.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 83.0 74.4 79.2 93.0 49.4 47.6 58.0 75.3 104.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 50.7 45.7 55.1 91.4 48.1 47.3 32.6 46.8 52.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------